Finland’s import prices have shown a persistent downward trend over the past year, with the November 2025 print of -1.70% YoY marking a sharper decline than both October’s -1.00% and the 12-month average of -1.90% since late 2024. This contraction reflects subdued global commodity prices, a stronger euro, and easing supply chain pressures. The geographic scope includes Finland’s key trading partners in the EU and beyond, where inflationary dynamics have cooled amid slower global growth.

Drivers this month

• Energy and raw materials prices fell by approximately 3.20% YoY, dragging overall import prices lower.
• Euro appreciation against USD and other currencies reduced euro-denominated import costs by an estimated 0.50 percentage points.
• Supply chain normalization post-pandemic continues to ease logistical premiums on imports.

Policy pulse

The current import price decline sits below the European Central Bank’s inflation target of near but below 2%, signaling easing imported inflation pressures. This may reduce urgency for aggressive monetary tightening in Finland’s context, though ECB policy remains data-dependent.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The EUR/FI currency pair strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market optimism on lower imported inflation easing price pressures. Finnish government bond yields edged down 5 basis points, while the OMX Helsinki 25 index showed mild gains.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for interpreting import price trends. Finland’s GDP growth slowed to 1.10% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 1.50% in Q2, reflecting weaker external demand. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 1.80% YoY in October, influenced by lower energy and import prices. Unemployment remained stable at 6.30%, while wage growth moderated to 2.20% YoY.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The ECB’s key interest rate stands at 3.75%, unchanged since September 2025. Financial conditions in Finland remain moderately tight, with 2-year government bond yields at 1.45%, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid global uncertainties. The import price decline supports a less hawkish stance, potentially delaying further rate hikes.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Finland’s fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit forecast at 1.80% of GDP. Government spending on infrastructure and green energy projects continues, supporting domestic demand. Lower import prices may ease inflationary pressures on public procurement costs, providing some fiscal space.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/FI currency pair strengthened 0.30% post-release, reflecting market relief on easing imported inflation. Finnish 10-year bond yields declined 7 basis points, signaling demand for safer assets amid growth concerns.

Looking ahead, Finland’s import prices trajectory will hinge on global commodity markets, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical developments. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global demand recovers, pushing commodity prices higher.
• Euro weakens against key trading partners, raising import costs.
• Import prices stabilize or rise modestly by 0.50% YoY in H1 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Commodity prices remain subdued but stable.
• Euro maintains current strength.
• Import prices hover around -1.50% to -1.00% YoY through mid-2026.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Further global growth slowdown depresses commodity prices.
• Euro strengthens further, amplifying import price declines.
• Import prices fall below -2.00% YoY, risking deflationary spillovers.

Policy pulse

Monetary authorities will monitor import price trends closely. Persistent declines may reduce inflation risks, potentially pausing rate hikes. Conversely, any reversal could prompt tightening.

Finland’s November 2025 import prices YoY print of -1.70% underscores ongoing disinflationary pressures from external sources. This aligns with broader European trends of easing inflation and stable financial conditions. While supportive of a moderate monetary policy stance, risks from geopolitical tensions and commodity market volatility remain. Policymakers and investors should weigh these dynamics carefully as Finland navigates a complex macroeconomic environment.

Key Markets Likely to React to Import Prices YoY

Import prices directly influence sectors sensitive to input costs and currency fluctuations. Markets such as the OMX Helsinki 25 equity index, EUR/FI currency pair, and Finnish government bonds typically respond to shifts in import price inflation. Additionally, commodities and related stocks track these trends closely, reflecting cost pressures and demand outlooks.

• HELSINKI25 – Finland’s benchmark stock index sensitive to import cost shifts.
• EURFI – Euro to Finnish krona exchange rate, impacted by import price changes.
• UPM – Major Finnish industrial stock affected by raw material import costs.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, reflecting risk sentiment shifts linked to macroeconomic data.
• USDEUR – USD/EUR pair influencing import price currency effects.

FAQ

What does Finland’s Import Prices YoY indicate?

It measures the annual change in prices Finland pays for imported goods, reflecting external inflation pressures.

How does import price decline affect Finland’s economy?

Lower import prices reduce inflationary pressures, potentially easing monetary policy and supporting consumer purchasing power.

Why is the import price trend important for investors?

It signals cost trends for businesses and influences currency and equity market movements tied to trade exposure.

Key takeaway: Finland’s import prices continue to decline, signaling easing imported inflation and supporting a cautious monetary policy outlook amid global uncertainties.