Finland Inflation Rate MoM: November 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Finland’s November 2025 inflation rate MoM unexpectedly declined by 0.20%, reversing the prior month’s 0.30% rise and missing the 0.10% estimate. This marks the second negative print in three months, signaling cooling price pressures amid persistent global uncertainties. Core inflation components such as shelter and energy costs moderated, while external shocks and fiscal tightening continue to shape the outlook. Monetary policy remains cautious, balancing subdued inflation with growth risks. Financial markets reacted with muted volatility, reflecting mixed sentiment. Structural trends suggest inflation volatility may persist into 2026.
Table of Contents
The latest inflation rate MoM for Finland (FI) released on November 14, 2025, registered a -0.20% change, a notable decline from October’s 0.30% increase and below the consensus estimate of 0.10%. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects a cooling trend in consumer prices after a volatile year marked by alternating inflationary pressures.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs eased, contributing -0.12 percentage points (pp) to the monthly decline.
- Energy prices fell by 1.50%, subtracting roughly -0.05 pp from inflation.
- Food prices remained stable, with negligible impact on the MoM rate.
- Used car prices showed minor upward pressure, 0.02 pp.
Policy pulse
The current inflation rate sits below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target, reinforcing the case for a cautious monetary stance. Finland’s inflation trajectory suggests limited immediate pressure for further tightening, though vigilance remains due to external risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EUR/FI currency pair depreciated 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market disappointment. Finnish 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, signaling a modest easing in inflation expectations. Breakeven inflation rates for the next 12 months dropped from 1.80% to 1.60%.
Finland’s inflation rate MoM has shown significant variability over the past year. The November 2025 print of -0.20% contrasts with the 12-month average MoM inflation of approximately 0.05%, underscoring recent volatility. Earlier in 2025, monthly inflation fluctuated between -0.20% and 0.30%, reflecting shifting supply-demand dynamics and external shocks.
Historical comparisons
- January 2025: -0.10% MoM, signaling early-year price softness.
- March 2025: 0.30% MoM, the highest monthly increase in the past year.
- September 2025: -0.20% MoM, similar to the current print, indicating recurring downward pressure.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The ECB’s recent policy meetings have maintained rates steady at 3.50%, emphasizing data dependency. Finland’s inflation softness reduces immediate pressure for hikes but keeps the door open for future adjustments if inflation rebounds. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit spreads stable and lending growth subdued.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Finland’s government has implemented moderate fiscal tightening in 2025, aiming to reduce deficits amid rising debt levels. Budgetary restraint has likely contributed to dampened domestic demand, indirectly influencing inflation moderation. Public spending on energy subsidies was scaled back in Q3, affecting consumer prices.
This chart reveals a trend of alternating inflation pressures, with recent months tilting toward price moderation. The downward shift in energy and shelter costs suggests that headline inflation may remain subdued near-term, though volatility persists due to external factors.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Finnish equities, represented by HEL1V, dipped 0.30% post-release, reflecting investor caution. The EUR/FI currency pair weakened slightly, while bond yields fell, indicating a market pricing in slower inflation growth.
Looking ahead, Finland’s inflation trajectory faces multiple influences. The base case scenario projects inflation hovering near zero to 0.10% MoM over the next quarter, supported by stable energy prices and moderate wage growth. However, upside risks include potential supply disruptions and renewed commodity price spikes.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (inflation rise): 25% probability. Driven by stronger wage growth and energy price rebounds, pushing MoM inflation above 0.30%.
- Base case: 55% probability. Inflation remains subdued between -0.10% and 0.10%, reflecting balanced supply-demand and stable monetary policy.
- Bearish (deflationary risks): 20% probability. Prolonged global slowdown or fiscal tightening leads to further negative inflation prints.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and volatile energy markets pose downside risks. Sanctions and supply chain interruptions could reignite inflationary pressures or disrupt growth, complicating policy responses.
Structural & long-run trends
Finland’s aging population and technological adoption continue to exert downward pressure on inflation through productivity gains and subdued wage growth. These factors suggest inflation volatility but a generally low long-run inflation environment.
Finland’s November 2025 inflation rate MoM print of -0.20% signals a pause in price increases after a volatile year. While this eases immediate inflation concerns, the outlook remains clouded by external uncertainties and structural shifts. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing growth support with inflation control amid evolving global dynamics.
Financial markets have priced in this moderation, but remain alert to potential shocks. Investors should monitor energy markets, wage trends, and geopolitical developments closely. The Sigmanomics database will continue to provide timely insights as the inflation story unfolds.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Markets sensitive to Finland’s inflation data include equities, fixed income, and currency pairs. The Finnish stock index HEL1V often moves with inflation surprises due to its economic exposure. The EUR/FI currency pair EURFI reflects cross-border capital flows reacting to inflation shifts. Bond yields such as the Finnish 2-year government bond FI2Y track inflation expectations closely. Additionally, the cryptocurrency BTCUSD sometimes reacts to inflation data as an alternative inflation hedge. Lastly, the EUR/USD pair EURUSD is a key barometer of Eurozone inflation sentiment.
Inflation vs. HEL1V Index Since 2020
Since 2020, Finland’s monthly inflation rate and the HEL1V index have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.45. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with equity rallies, reflecting economic growth optimism. However, sharp inflation spikes have occasionally triggered market corrections, underscoring the nuanced relationship.
FAQ
- What is the latest Finland inflation rate MoM?
- The November 2025 inflation rate MoM for Finland was -0.20%, indicating a monthly price decline.
- How does this inflation print compare historically?
- This is the second negative monthly inflation reading in 2025, contrasting with the year’s average of 0.05% MoM.
- What are the macroeconomic implications of this inflation data?
- The print suggests easing inflation pressures, supporting a cautious monetary policy stance amid external risks.
Takeaway: Finland’s November inflation decline signals cooling price pressures, but external shocks and structural trends warrant close monitoring.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 inflation rate MoM of -0.20% contrasts sharply with October’s 0.30% and the 12-month average of 0.05%. This reversal highlights a cooling phase after a brief inflation uptick. Key contributors include a 1.50% drop in energy prices and shelter cost moderation, which together offset minor upward pressures from used car prices.
Energy prices have been volatile, swinging from 0.40% in August to -1.50% in November, reflecting global commodity price fluctuations and supply chain normalization. Shelter inflation, a traditionally sticky component, showed signs of easing for the second consecutive month.