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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FinlandFinland Unemployment Rate climbed to 10.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Finland Unemployment Rate climbed to 10.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.3% from August's 9.1% reading. The print came in hotter than the 9.4% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.3%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 9.5%, vs 11.43% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 76th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
10.4
Actual
9.4
Consensus
9.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.36 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 9.25
Actual: 10.4
Error: -1.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Finland) was reported at 10.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 9.4% by 1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 9.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.37%, ranging from 9.1% to 12.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 9.8%, down from the prior three at 11.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.98%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.78%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 9.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.36%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - FI
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About Unemployment Rate — Finland
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 10.4 %, consensus 9.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 9.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 9.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FI Events
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | FI | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | FI | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |