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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Business Confidence climbed to 105.0% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
France Business Confidence climbed to 105.0% in October 2026, up 4.0% from September's 101.0% reading. The reading matched the 101.0% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 4.0%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 102.0%, vs 101.0% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
105
Actual
101
Consensus
101
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 101.25
Actual: 105
Error: -3.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (France) was reported at 105% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 101% by 4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 101%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 101.3%, ranging from 98% to 105% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 103%, up from the prior three at 101%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.9%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.55%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 99.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Nov 5) and Balance of Trade (Nov 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business Confidence - FR
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About Business Confidence — France
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 105 %, consensus 101 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 101 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 103 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.00 | High |
| 06:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.10 | High |
| 06:30 | FR | Household Consumption MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.20 | Low |
| 06:30 | FR | Consumer Spending MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.20 | Medium |
| 07:45 | FR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.33 | Medium |
| 07:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.73 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.8 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.73 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.33 | High |