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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Business Confidence climbed to 103.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
France Business Confidence climbed to 103.0% in August 2026, up 2.0% from July's 101.0% reading. The reading matched the 101.0% consensus. Business Confidence has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 100.5%, vs 100.75% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
103
Actual
101
Consensus
101
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.75 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 100.75
Actual: 103
Error: -2.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (France) was reported at 103% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 101% by 2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 101%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 100.4%, ranging from 96% to 103% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 101.33%, up from the prior three at 101%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.06%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.75%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 99.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.75%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23) and S&P Global Services PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Business Confidence - FR
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About Business Confidence — France
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 103 %, consensus 101 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 101 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 100 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.56) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low |