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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Consumer Confidence fell to 80.0% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
France Consumer Confidence fell to 80.0% in October 2026, down 5.0% from September's 85.0% reading. The reading missed the 85.0% consensus by 5.0%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 87.25%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged 86.0%, vs 84.0% in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Confidence is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
80
Actual
85
Consensus
85
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 85
Actual: 80
Error: +5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (France) was reported at 80% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 85% by 5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 85%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 86.64%, ranging from 80% to 91% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 84%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.39%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.01%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged 88%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Nov 5) and Balance of Trade (Nov 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - FR
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About Consumer Confidence — France
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 80 %, consensus 85 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 86 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 86 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR, r=0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:45 | FR | Budget Balance | -159.6 | -154 | -155.40 | Low | |
| 17:00 | FR | New Car Sales YoY | 11.6 | 5.1 | 5.10 | Low | |