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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance HCOB Composite PMI fell to 48.3 in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
France HCOB Composite PMI fell to 48.3 in March 2026, down 1.6 from February's 49.9 reading. The reading matched the 49.3 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.3. Over the past 3 months, HCOB Composite PMI averaged 49.73, vs 48.62 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
48.3
Actual
49.3
Consensus
49.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.41
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 49.34
Actual: 48.3
Error: +1.04
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| CAC 40 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Bearish CAC 40 | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HCOB Composite PMI (France) was reported at 48.30 in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 49.30 by 1.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 49.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.06, ranging from 46.80 to 50.40 across 16 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 49.37, down from the prior three at 49.73. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.00) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.05). In March readings over the past 3 years, HCOB Composite PMI has averaged 47.68.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.41.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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HCOB Composite PMI - FR
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About HCOB Composite PMI — France
DEFINITION
The HCOB Composite PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the economy. It combines data from various sectors, including manufacturing, services, and construction, to provide a comprehensive assessment of economic activity. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can provide valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy. A high HCOB Composite PMI indicates strong economic growth, while a low reading may signal a potential slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 48.3, consensus 49.3. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 49.9. Before that (Feb 2026): 49.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.