France’s HCOB Composite PMI for December 2025 surprised to the upside at 49.90, beating the 48.50 estimate and rising from 47.70 in November, signaling a tentative stabilization just below the 50 contraction threshold. This 2.20-point increase marks the highest reading since September, reflecting easing contractionary pressures in manufacturing and services. Looking ahead, cautious ECB policy and ongoing geopolitical risks suggest the economy may hover near stagnation, with market sentiment showing mild optimism. Updated 12/3/25
Hcob Composite Pmi - FR
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Listen to: France HCOB Composite PMI
France HCOB Composite PMI December 2025: Signs of Stabilization Amid Lingering Challenges
Key Takeaways: The latest HCOB Composite PMI for France rose to 49.90 in December 2025, surpassing expectations and marking the highest reading since September. This signals a tentative stabilization after five consecutive months below the 50 contraction threshold. Core macro indicators and monetary policy remain cautious, while geopolitical risks and fiscal constraints continue to cloud the outlook. Market reactions were muted but showed slight optimism in short-term yields and the euro. Forward scenarios range from mild recovery to renewed contraction depending on external shocks and policy responses.
The HCOB Composite PMI for France, released on December 3, 2025, registered at 49.90, up from 47.70 in November and well above the 48.50 consensus forecast. This marks the first time since September 2025 that the index approached the 50 neutral mark, signaling a potential halt in the recent contraction trend. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, covers the entire French economy, combining manufacturing and services sectors, and reflects activity trends over the past month.
Services sector stabilized, adding 0.30 points after months of decline.
New orders rose slightly, offsetting weak export demand.
Input cost pressures eased, supporting margins.
Policy pulse
The PMI reading remains below the 50 expansion threshold but shows improvement relative to the European Central Bank’s inflation target zone. The ECB’s cautious stance on interest rates, maintaining the deposit rate at 3.75%, aligns with the tentative stabilization in activity. Financial conditions remain tight but have eased slightly due to recent liquidity measures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD rose 0.15% in the first hour post-release, while 2-year French government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting mild optimism. The CAC 40 index showed a modest 0.30% gain, signaling cautious investor confidence.
The HCOB Composite PMI’s rise to 49.90 contrasts with the average reading of 48.30 over the past 12 months, indicating a potential inflection point. Historically, readings below 50 have dominated since mid-2024, reflecting persistent economic headwinds. The PMI’s components reveal a mixed picture: manufacturing output and new orders are improving, while services remain fragile due to subdued consumer spending.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The ECB’s current monetary policy stance, characterized by steady interest rates and targeted liquidity injections, aims to balance inflation containment with growth support. The PMI’s improvement suggests that tighter financial conditions have not yet severely constrained activity, but risks remain if credit tightening resumes.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
France’s fiscal policy remains conservative, with the government targeting a deficit reduction to 3.20% of GDP in 2025. Public investment has been maintained in key sectors, but austerity measures limit stimulus potential. The PMI’s stabilization may reflect the lagged effects of fiscal prudence combined with selective spending.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on export demand. The PMI’s modest rise suggests some resilience, but downside risks persist if global trade conditions deteriorate further or energy prices spike again.
The December 2025 HCOB Composite PMI for France at 49.90 marks a significant rebound from November’s 47.70 and exceeds the 12-month average of 48.30. This upward move breaks a five-month streak of contraction, suggesting a tentative stabilization in economic activity.
Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.00 to 49.50, while services improved from 47.50 to 50.20, the first expansionary reading in services since August 2025. New orders index climbed to 50.10, indicating a slight pickup in demand. Input prices eased to 52.30 from 54.70, reducing cost pressures.
This chart reveals a potential turning point in France’s economic cycle. The composite PMI’s rise above 49.50 signals that contractionary pressures are easing, driven by a rebound in services and manufacturing stabilization. However, the index remains below 50, indicating cautious optimism rather than full recovery.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The French 2-year yield dropped 5 basis points, reflecting reduced recession fears. EUR/USD strengthened modestly, while the CAC 40 gained 0.30%, showing tentative investor confidence.
Looking ahead, the HCOB Composite PMI’s near-50 reading sets the stage for three scenarios over the next six months:
Bullish (30% probability): Continued stabilization leads to a sustained expansion above 50, supported by easing inflation, improved consumer confidence, and accommodative ECB policy.
Base (50% probability): The PMI hovers around 49-50, reflecting slow growth with ongoing headwinds from geopolitical risks and fiscal constraints.
Bearish (20% probability): Renewed contraction below 48 due to external shocks, tighter credit conditions, or energy price spikes, triggering a sharper slowdown.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
France’s economy faces structural challenges including aging demographics, productivity stagnation, and the need for green transition investments. The PMI’s recent improvement is encouraging but must be viewed in the context of these long-term trends that may limit growth potential without significant reforms.
Policy pulse
The ECB’s forward guidance suggests a cautious approach, with potential rate cuts only if inflation sustainably falls below target. Fiscal policy is unlikely to shift dramatically before the 2027 elections, limiting near-term stimulus.
The December 2025 HCOB Composite PMI for France signals a tentative stabilization after months of contraction. While the index remains just below the 50 expansion threshold, improvements in manufacturing and services offer cautious optimism. Monetary and fiscal policies remain restrictive but balanced, and external risks continue to pose downside threats. Market reactions reflect this nuanced outlook, with modest gains in equities and currency strength. Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming data closely, as the next few months will be critical in confirming whether France’s economy can transition from stagnation to growth.
Key tradable symbols linked to the PMI’s trajectory include BNP (French banking sector sensitivity), EURUSD (currency impact), BTCUSD (risk sentiment proxy), SIE (industrial exposure), and EURJPY (cross-currency risk gauge).
Key Markets Likely to React to HCOB Composite PMI
The HCOB Composite PMI is a critical barometer of France’s economic health, influencing multiple asset classes. Financial markets closely track this indicator to gauge growth momentum and risk appetite. The following symbols historically show strong correlations with PMI movements:
BNP: As a major French bank, BNP’s stock price reflects domestic economic conditions and credit demand.
EURUSD: The euro-dollar pair is sensitive to French and Eurozone growth signals embedded in PMI data.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin often acts as a risk sentiment barometer, reacting to macroeconomic stability or uncertainty.
SIE: Siemens, with significant European industrial exposure, correlates with manufacturing PMI trends.
EURJPY: This cross-currency pair reflects risk-on/risk-off shifts linked to Eurozone economic data.
Insight: HCOB Composite PMI vs. EURUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, the HCOB Composite PMI and EURUSD have shown a positive correlation, with PMI expansions often coinciding with euro strength. For example, during the 2023 recovery phase, PMI rises above 50 aligned with EURUSD gains of 5-7%. Conversely, PMI contractions below 48 have typically preceded euro weakness. This relationship underscores the PMI’s value as a leading indicator for currency traders focusing on Eurozone fundamentals.
FAQs
What is the HCOB Composite PMI for France?
The HCOB Composite PMI is a monthly survey-based indicator measuring business activity in France’s manufacturing and services sectors, signaling economic expansion or contraction.
How does the latest PMI reading affect France’s economy?
The December 2025 reading of 49.90 suggests stabilization after months of contraction, indicating that economic activity may be bottoming out but not yet expanding.
Why is the PMI important for investors?
The PMI provides early signals of economic trends, influencing monetary policy expectations, financial markets, and investment decisions related to French and Eurozone assets.
Takeaway: France’s December 2025 HCOB Composite PMI signals a fragile stabilization, balancing cautious optimism against persistent risks. The next quarter will be decisive for confirming a sustainable recovery or renewed slowdown.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - FR Events
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
2.3
1.8
1.80
High
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.50
Medium
06:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.3
-0.6
0.5
0.58
Low
05:30
FR
Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.3
0.1
0.13
Low
05:30
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.3
0
-0.02
Low
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-26.1
18.2
12
16.85
Medium
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2808.4
2834.5
2846.5
2842.78
Low
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
92
91
92
92.17
Medium
Friday, August 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
95
96
95.67
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
97
94
96
95.67
Low
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
42.1
44
44.4
43.72
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
55
50.1
50.3
51.13
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
52.7
49.1
49.1
49.73
Medium
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.10
Medium
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.30
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.10
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.60
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
FR
Unemployment Rate
7.3
7.5
7.5
7.50
Medium
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-6.1
-7.7
-7.5
-7.77
Medium
06:45
FR
Imports
57.7
57.8
61.2
60.67
Low
06:45
FR
Exports
51.7
50
51.7
51.52
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
-2.6
-2.5
-1.4
-2.47
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
39.7
41
41.5
39.77
Low
06:45
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.1
48.8
49.5
50.13
Low
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
50.1
49.6
50.7
51.53
High
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-103.5
-113.5
-130
-130.60
Low
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.8
-2.2
1
0.70
Medium
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
44
45.4
44.1
43.42
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.40
High
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-6
-6.7
2.2
0.18
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.30
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.30
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.70
Low
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-0.3
-1.6
0.4
-0.25
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
1.5
0.8
0.88
High
05:30
FR
Household Consumption MoM
-0.5
0.8
0.2
0.28
Low
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.23
High
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
91
90
90
90.17
Medium
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
18.2
40.9
8.9
13.75
Medium
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2834.5
2816.3
2825
2821.28
Low
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
94
99
98
97.67
Low
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
95
99
99
98.67
Medium
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.5
48.8
48.9
49.53
Medium
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
44.1
45.4
45.8
45.12
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
50.7
49.6
49.8
50.63
High
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
FR
Current Account
-3.1
-3.5
-1.2
-2.27
Low
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.50
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.10
Medium
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
-2.1
0.6
-0.5
-0.80
Medium
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-8
-7.5
-7.2
-7.47
Medium
Thursday, July 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41
43.4
49
47.27
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
-1.47
Low
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
49.6
49.3
48.8
49.63
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.8
48.9
48.2
48.83
Low
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-113.5
-91.6
-115
-115.60
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.4
46.4
45.3
44.62
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
1.5
-0.9
0.1
0.18
Low
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-6.7
-6.7
-6.1
-8.12
Low
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-1.4
-3.6
-0.7
-1.35
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.50
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.50
High
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2816.3
2775.4
2810
2806.28
Low
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
40.9
-36.8
-17
-12.15
Medium
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
89
90
89
89.17
Medium
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48.8
49.3
50
50.83
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.3
46.4
46.8
46.12
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.2
48.9
49.5
50.13
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
99
99
98
97.67
Low
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
99
100
99.67
Medium
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.5
0
0.00
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.4
2.7
2.70
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.20
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.20
Medium
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Exports
51.2
52.1
52.6
52.42
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
-1.8
0.6
1.5
0.43
Low
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-7.6
-5.4
-5.4
-5.67
Medium
06:45
FR
Imports
58.8
57.5
57.7
57.17
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
43.4
41.5
44
42.27
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
49.3
51.3
49.4
50.23
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.9
50.5
49.1
49.73
Low
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
-0.2
0.5
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-91.6
-52.8
-60
-60.60
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.4
45.3
46.7
46.02
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.20
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.5
0.2
0.20
Medium
06:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.23
Medium
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-3.6
-1
-1.1
-1.75
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.4
2.5
2.50
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.40
High
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-6.8
8.3
-3.5
-5.52
Low
06:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
-0.8
0.5
0.2
0.28
Low
06:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
0.8
1.1
1.18
Medium
05:30
FR
Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0.3
0
0.1
0.13
Low
05:30
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
90
90
91
91.17
Medium
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2775.4
2812.2
2810.9
2807.18
Low
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-36.8
-8.4
-12
-7.15
Medium
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
100
100
99.67
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
99
99
100
99.67
Low
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.7
45.3
45.8
45.12
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.1
50.5
51
51.63
Medium
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
49.4
51.3
51.7
52.53
High
Friday, May 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
FR
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.5
7.4
7.40
Medium
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.50
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.40
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.60
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.20
Medium
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41.5
41
43
41.27
Low
06:45
FR
Imports
57.7
56.4
58.5
57.97
Low
06:45
FR
Exports
52.2
50.8
51.9
51.72
Low
06:45
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0.2
-0.1
0
-0.02
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
1.3
0.3
-1.9
-2.97
Low
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-5.5
-5.6
-5
-5.27
Medium
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
51.3
48.3
50.5
51.33
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
50.5
48.3
49.9
50.53
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
-0.3
0.2
0.3
0.00
Medium
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-52.8
-44
-52
-52.60
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.50
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.20
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.10
High
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-0.2
-1.7
-0.5
-1.15
Low
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-7.5
-5.5
-7.7
-9.72
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.50
Low
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
0.8
0.9
0.98
High
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.13
High
05:30
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.28
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
90
91
92
92.17
Medium
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2812.2
2820.6
2801.9
2798.18
Low
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-8.4
-6.1
-10
-5.15
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
99
100
100
99.67
Low
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
100
103
102
101.67
Medium
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.9
48.3
49
49.63
Medium
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
44.9
46.2
44.9
44.22
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
50.5
48.3
48.9
49.73
High
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
3.2
2.4
2.40
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.9
0.3
0.30
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.9
0.2
0.20
Medium
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
3
2.3
2.30
Medium
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Exports
51.1
48.8
49.1
48.92
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
0.9
-0.5
-1.3
-2.37
Low
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-5.2
-7.2
-7
-7.27
Medium
06:45
FR
Imports
56.296
56.048
55.7
55.17
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41
41.9
44
42.27
Low
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.2
-0.9
0.5
0.20
Medium
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:15
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
-1.5
13
16
12.03
Low
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48.3
48.4
47.8
48.63
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.3
48.1
47.7
48.33
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-44.03
-25.74
-54.4
-55.00
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.2
47.1
45.8
45.12
High
Friday, March 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0
-0.6
0.2
0.28
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-15.8
2.5
12.3
17.15
Medium
11:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2811.9
2827.7
2840
2836.28
Low
07:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
91
90
90
90.17
Medium
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
47.8
48.4
48.7
49.53
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.8
47.1
47.5
46.82
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
47.7
48.1
48.6
49.23
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Confidence
102
101
100
99.67
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
100
98
97
96.67
Low
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3
3.1
2.9
2.90
Medium
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
-0.2
0.8
0.80
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.9
-0.2
0.9
0.90
Low
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-7.388
-6.421
-6.5
-6.77
Medium
07:45
FR
Imports
56.199
56.817
56.8
56.27
Low
07:45
FR
Current Account
-1
-0.2
-1.4
-2.47
Low
07:45
FR
Exports
48.811
50.396
50.6
50.42
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41.9
39.6
41
39.27
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.1
44.6
47.7
48.33
Low
08:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48.4
45.4
48
48.83
High
07:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
-1.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.40
Medium
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:25
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
13
9.2
12
8.03
Low
07:45
FR
Budget Balance
-25.74
-173.26
-27
-27.60
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.1
43.1
46.8
46.12
High
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.9
-0.2
0.7
0.70
Low
07:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0
0
0.03
Medium
07:45
FR
PPI MoM
-1.3
-0.1
0.3
-0.35
Low
07:45
FR
PPI YoY
-5.1
-1.3
-3.3
-5.32
Low
07:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
-0.3
0.3
-0.2
-0.12
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.1
2.7
2.70
High
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
-0.2
0.7
0.70
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.4
3
3.00
Low
07:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.78
Medium
06:30
FR
Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.2
-0.1
-0.07
Low
06:30
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
-0.1
0.2
0
-0.02
Low
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
2.5
-1.4
-6.2
-1.35
Medium
11:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2827.7
2825.2
2819
2815.28
Low
07:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
89
91
92
92.17
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48
45.4
45.6
46.43
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.8
43.1
43.5
42.82
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
47.7
44.6
45
45.63
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Confidence
100
98
99
98.67
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
98
99
99
98.67
Low
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
3.4
3.40
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.20
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.20
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.7
3.1
3.10
Medium
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
FR
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.5
7.4
7.40
Medium
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Current Account
-0.7
-2.9
-2.7
-3.77
Low
07:45
FR
Exports
50.192
49.451
49.1
48.92
Low
07:45
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.1
-0.1
-0.12
Low
07:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-6.829
-5.939
-6
-6.27
Medium
07:45
FR
Imports
57.021
55.395
54.9
54.37
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
39.6
42.6
43.4
41.67
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
45.4
45.7
45
45.83
High
08:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
44.6
44.8
44.2
44.83
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Budget Balance
-173.26
-197.97
-173
-173.60
Low
07:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
0.5
0.2
-0.10
Medium
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
43.1
42.1
43.2
42.52
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
PPI MoM
0.1
2.3
0.5
-0.15
Low
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.20
Low
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
3.3
3.30
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.40
Medium
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.7
2.9
2.90
High
07:45
FR
PPI YoY
-0.9
0.3
-0.5
-2.52
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.28
High
06:30
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.38
Low
06:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0
0
0
0.03
High
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
91
89
90
90.17
Medium
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-1.4
5.2
9.4
14.25
Medium
11:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2825.2
2826.6
2836
2832.28
Low
07:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
98
98
98
97.67
Low
07:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
99
100
99.67
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
45
45.7
46
46.83
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
43.2
42.1
42.5
41.82
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
44.2
44.8
45.2
45.83
Medium
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Budget Balance
-197.97
-177.71
-185
-185.60
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.7
-0.9
-0.1
-0.02
Low
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.7
3.5
3.7
3.70
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
3.9
4.1
4.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.10
Medium
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
-0.3
0
-0.30
Medium
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-5.943
-8.455
-7.9
-8.17
Medium
07:45
FR
Exports
49.451
49.745
48.9
48.72
Low
07:45
FR
Current Account
-2.8
-3.4
-3.2
-4.27
Low
07:45
FR
Imports
55.395
58.2
57.7
57.17
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
FR
S&P Global Construction PMI
42.6
44.6
45.5
44.05
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:55
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
14.5
14
12
8.03
Low
08:50
FR
S&P Global Composite PMI
44.8
44.6
43.7
44.25
Low
08:50
FR
S&P Global Services PMI
45.7
45.4
44.3
45.00
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
3.9
4.1
4.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.7
3.5
3.8
3.80
High
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.30
Low
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
42.1
42.9
42
42.05
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
France HCOB Composite PMI Rises to 49.90 in December 2025 December Report Shows Tentative Stabilization in French Economy The HCOB Composite PMI, a key monthly gauge of France’s manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 49.90 in December 2025, up from 47.70 in November and beating the 48.50 consensus estimate. This index, which signals expansion above 50 and contraction below, suggests that economic activity in FR is stabilizing after several months of decline. Fast facts: the year-over-year change shows a modest improvement, the month-over-month increase is 2.20 points, and the data was released on December 3, 2025. According to Morgan Stanley’s chief European economist, “This uptick in the HCOB Composite PMI reflects easing pressures on supply chains and a cautious return of demand, though risks from geopolitical tensions remain.” The European Central Bank’s steady interest rate policy appears to support this fragile recovery, while market reactions have been muted but slightly positive. Overall, the data points to a pause in contraction rather than a full rebound, with ongoing challenges in consumer spending and export demand continuing to weigh on growth prospects in FR.
The December 2025 HCOB Composite PMI for France at 49.90 marks a significant rebound from November’s 47.70 and exceeds the 12-month average of 48.30. This upward move breaks a five-month streak of contraction, suggesting a tentative stabilization in economic activity.
Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.00 to 49.50, while services improved from 47.50 to 50.20, the first expansionary reading in services since August 2025. New orders index climbed to 50.10, indicating a slight pickup in demand. Input prices eased to 52.30 from 54.70, reducing cost pressures.