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France HCOB Construction PMI climbed to 43.9 in February 2026, released March 2026, up 0.4 from January's 43.5 reading. The reading matched the 44.4 consensus. HCOB Construction PMI has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HCOB Construction PMI averaged 43.45, vs 42.1 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
across last 12 releases
Mar 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
HCOB Construction PMI (France) was reported at 43.90 in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 44.40 by 0.50. The reading rose from the previous value of 43.50. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 42.94, ranging from 39.70 to 46.70 across 8 releases.
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 43.60, up from the prior three at 42.10. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.13) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.17). In March readings over the past 3 years, HCOB Construction PMI has averaged 41.87.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.38.
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
HCOB Construction PMI is a leading economic indicator that measures the level of activity in the construction sector. It provides valuable insights into the health of the construction industry, including trends in new orders, employment, and business expectations. This indicator is widely used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions about the overall state of the economy and the construction sector. With its timely and accurate data, HCOB Construction PMI is a crucial tool for monitoring and forecasting economic growth and identifying potential risks in the construction industry.
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 43.9, consensus 44.4. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 43.5. Before that (Dec 2025): 43.4.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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