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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance HICP MoM fell to 0.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
France HICP MoM fell to 0.1% in May 2026, down 1.1% from April's 1.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.4%. Over the past 3 months, HICP MoM averaged 1.06%, vs -0.05% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.3
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.03 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.38
Actual: 0.1
Error: +0.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish FTSE 100 | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Bullish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP MoM (France) was reported at 0.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.13%, ranging from -1.1% to 1.2% across 22 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.8%, up from the prior three at 0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.56%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In May readings over the past 3 years, HICP MoM has averaged 0.45%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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HICP MoM - FR
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About HICP MoM — France
DEFINITION
France's HICP MoM rose 0.100000% in May, missing the 0.300000% estimate and sharply down from April's 1.200000%. This slowdown signals a significant easing in monthly inflation pressures compared to the prior month. Market focus will remain on upcoming ECB policy decisions amid this deceleration. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.