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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
France Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 0.3% from June's -0.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.27%. The reading is in the 36th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.69 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (France) was reported at -0.4% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.09%, ranging from -0.7% to 0.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.07%, up from the prior three at -0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.5%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.39%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -0.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.69%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23) and S&P Global Services PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - FR
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About Industrial Production MoM — France
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low |