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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
France Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.6% in July 2026, up 0.9% from June's -0.3% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.3% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.36%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.14%, vs 0.51% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 82nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.25
Actual: -0.3
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (France) was reported at 0.6% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.07%, ranging from -1% to 1% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.13%, down from the prior three at 0.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.49%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.47%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 5) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - FR
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About Inflation Rate MoM — France
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Consumer Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Household Consumption MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.95 | High |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.50 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | CPI MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |