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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance New Car Registrations YoY fell to -14.7% in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
France New Car Registrations YoY fell to -14.7% in February 2026, released March 2026, down 8.1% from January's -6.6% reading. The reading missed the -4.0% consensus by 10.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -2.57%. Over the past 3 months, New Car Registrations YoY averaged -6.77%, vs 1.62% in the prior 3-month window. New Car Registrations YoY is now the lowest in 17 months.
Latest Release
-14.7
Actual
-4
Consensus
-6.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.54 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: -6.98
Actual: -14.7
Error: +7.72
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| CAC 40 | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Car Registrations YoY (France) was reported at -14.7% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of -4% by 10.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of -6.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -3.9%, ranging from -14.7% to 2.9% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -9.3%, down from the prior three at -4.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.38%) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.01%). In March readings over the past 3 years, New Car Registrations YoY has averaged -0.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with CAC 40, positively correlated (Bullish CAC 40). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.54%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Nov 5) and Balance of Trade (Nov 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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New Car Registrations YoY - FR
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About New Car Registrations YoY — France
DEFINITION
New Car Registrations YoY (Year over Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of new cars registered in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. This data is often used by economists and investors to assess the health of the automotive industry and consumer spending habits. A higher YoY percentage indicates an increase in new car sales, while a lower percentage suggests a decline. This indicator can provide valuable insights into the overall economic growth and consumer confidence in a particular country or region.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual -14.7 %, consensus -4 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): -14.7 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -6.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.63) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.00 | High |
| 06:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.10 | High |
| 06:30 | FR | Household Consumption MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.20 | Low |
| 06:30 | FR | Consumer Spending MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.20 | Medium |
| 07:45 | FR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.33 | Medium |
| 07:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.73 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.8 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.73 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.33 | High |