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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Unemployment Benefit Claims fell to -9K in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
France Unemployment Benefit Claims fell to -9K in April 2026, released May 2026, down 44.6K from March's 35.6K reading. The print came in cooler than the 23K consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -3.79K. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Benefit Claims averaged 26.65K, vs -20.1K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 44th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-9
Actual
23
Consensus
35.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±29.53 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 24.35
Actual: -9
Error: +33.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Benefit Claims (France) was reported at -9 thousand in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 23 thousand by 32 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 36 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8 thousand, ranging from -27 thousand to 69 thousand across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -6 thousand, down from the prior three at 12 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 34 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 87 thousand). In May readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Benefit Claims has averaged -74 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 30 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Unemployment Benefit Claims - FR
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About Unemployment Benefit Claims — France
DEFINITION
Unemployment Benefit Claims is a financial indicator that measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits within a specific time period. This data is used to assess the health of the job market and can provide insights into the overall economic conditions of a country or region. A high number of unemployment benefit claims may indicate a struggling job market, while a low number may suggest a strong economy with low unemployment rates. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it can impact consumer spending, business confidence, and government policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -9 K, consensus 23 K. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 35.6 K. Before that (Feb 2026): 17.7 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.