Ghana’s headline inflation rate for November 2025 registered at 8.00% year-on-year (YoY), according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This figure undershot market expectations of 8.30% and marks a significant decline from October’s 9.40% reading. The current rate is also substantially lower than the peak inflation of 23.10% recorded in March 2025, signaling a steady easing of price pressures over the past eight months.

Drivers this month

• Food inflation moderated, contributing -0.70 percentage points (pp) to the decline.
• Energy prices stabilized after sharp rises earlier in the year.
• Core inflation components, such as housing and transport, showed mild increases but remained contained.

Policy pulse

The 8.00% inflation rate remains above the Bank of Ghana’s target band of 6% ± 2%, but the downward trend supports the central bank’s recent monetary tightening. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has held the policy rate steady at 25% since September, aiming to anchor inflation expectations and stabilize the currency.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Ghanaian cedi (GHS) appreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved sentiment. Short-term government bond yields fell by 15 basis points, signaling easing inflation risk premia.

The inflation rate’s decline aligns with improvements in core macroeconomic indicators. Ghana’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains robust at 4.50%, supported by agriculture and services sectors. However, fiscal deficits continue to weigh on inflation dynamics, with the government budget deficit projected at 7.20% of GDP for 2025, slightly above the 6.80% recorded in 2024.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Bank of Ghana’s high policy rate of 25% has tightened financial conditions, curbing credit growth from 18% YoY in mid-2025 to 12% in October. Inflation expectations have shifted downward, with the 12-month forward breakeven inflation rate dropping from 10.50% in August to 8.70% in November.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Despite fiscal consolidation efforts, persistent deficits and public debt near 75% of GDP pose inflationary risks. Subsidy reforms and improved tax collection are underway but face implementation challenges amid political pressures.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global commodity prices, especially oil and food staples, have stabilized after volatility in early 2025. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in key supply regions could disrupt imports, potentially reversing inflation gains.

Monthly inflation declines have been broad-based, with food inflation dropping from 11.20% YoY in October to 9.50% in November. Energy inflation stabilized near 6.80%, while core inflation held steady at 7.90%. The cedi’s 0.40% appreciation post-release further supports disinflation by lowering import costs.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The GHS strengthened modestly, and 2-year government bond yields declined by 15 basis points, reflecting reduced inflation risk. Breakeven inflation swaps also tightened, indicating improved market confidence in inflation control.

Looking ahead, Ghana’s inflation trajectory depends on several key factors. The base case scenario, with a 60% probability, assumes continued monetary discipline and stable commodity prices, leading inflation to fall below 6% by mid-2026. This would support real income growth and investment.

The bullish scenario (20% probability) envisions faster disinflation to 4.50% YoY by Q3 2026, driven by stronger fiscal consolidation, improved productivity, and a stable cedi. This would enhance Ghana’s attractiveness to foreign investors and reduce borrowing costs.

The bearish scenario (20% probability) involves inflation rebounding above 10% due to fiscal slippage, currency depreciation, or external shocks such as renewed commodity price spikes or geopolitical disruptions. This would pressure the Bank of Ghana to tighten further, risking slower growth.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term inflation in Ghana has been volatile, influenced by supply constraints, fiscal imbalances, and exchange rate swings. Structural reforms in agriculture, energy, and public finance are critical to anchoring inflation expectations sustainably. Digital payment adoption and financial inclusion may also improve monetary transmission and inflation control.

Ghana’s November 2025 inflation print of 8.00% YoY marks a meaningful step toward price stability after a turbulent year. The data from the Sigmanomics database confirms that monetary policy is bearing fruit, but fiscal discipline and external risk management remain essential. Market reactions suggest confidence in the disinflation path, yet vigilance is needed to guard against upside risks.

Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation drivers closely, including food and energy prices, currency movements, and fiscal developments. A balanced approach that supports growth while containing inflation will be key to Ghana’s macroeconomic resilience in 2026.

For further context, the following tradable symbols have notable correlations with Ghana’s inflation dynamics:

• GHANA – Reflects domestic equity market sensitivity to inflation and growth expectations.
• USDGHS – The Ghanaian cedi’s exchange rate, a key driver of import inflation.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s role as an alternative store of value amid inflation concerns.
• MTNGH – Telecommunications sector, sensitive to consumer spending power.
• EURUSD – Euro-dollar exchange rate, influencing Ghana’s trade and capital flows.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY

Ghana’s inflation rate influences multiple asset classes, from local equities to currency pairs and global cryptocurrencies. The Ghanaian cedi (USDGHS) often reacts swiftly to inflation data, as currency stability is critical for import prices. Domestic stocks like GHANA and MTNGH reflect investor sentiment on economic growth and inflation risk. Internationally, EURUSD movements impact Ghana’s trade balance and capital flows. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) occasionally serves as an inflation hedge, attracting interest during periods of currency volatility.

• GHANA – Domestic equity sensitivity to inflation and growth.
• USDGHS – Exchange rate volatility linked to inflation expectations.
• BTCUSD – Alternative asset reacting to inflation and currency risk.
• MTNGH – Consumer sector exposure to inflation-driven spending changes.
• EURUSD – Influences Ghana’s external trade and capital flows.

Extras: Inflation Rate vs. USDGHS Exchange Rate Since 2020

Since 2020, Ghana’s inflation rate and the USDGHS exchange rate have shown a strong positive correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with cedi depreciation, amplifying import costs and feeding back into inflation. For example, the 2025 inflation peak of 23.10% in March aligned with a 15% cedi depreciation against the USD. Conversely, the recent inflation decline to 8.00% has accompanied a 4% cedi appreciation, underscoring the currency’s role in inflation dynamics. This relationship highlights the importance of exchange rate stability in Ghana’s inflation management.

FAQs

What is the current inflation rate YoY for Ghana?

The latest inflation rate for Ghana is 8.00% year-on-year as of November 2025, down from 9.40% in October.

How does Ghana’s inflation rate impact monetary policy?

Inflation above the target band prompts the Bank of Ghana to maintain high policy rates, aiming to anchor expectations and stabilize prices.

What are the main risks to Ghana’s inflation outlook?

Risks include fiscal deficits, currency depreciation, global commodity price shocks, and geopolitical tensions affecting imports.

Final takeaway: Ghana’s inflation is on a clear downward path, but sustaining this requires continued monetary vigilance, fiscal discipline, and external stability.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.