The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY for Greece in November 2025 registered at 1.60%, marking a continued deceleration from the mid-year peak of 3.70% in August. This figure is the lowest since March 2025’s 3.00%, signaling easing inflationary pressures. The current rate remains below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target, suggesting a moderation in price growth that could influence monetary policy decisions.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices contributed -0.12 percentage points, reflecting lower global oil costs.
• Food inflation eased to 0.40%, down from 0.70% in October, due to improved supply chains.
• Services inflation remained steady at 1.80%, supported by stable wage growth.

Policy pulse

At 1.60%, inflation sits comfortably below the ECB’s 2% target, reducing immediate pressure for rate hikes. The European Central Bank’s recent dovish tone aligns with this trend, suggesting a pause or slower pace in tightening monetary policy for Greece and the Eurozone.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The EUR/GBP pair strengthened by 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market optimism on subdued inflation easing ECB tightening fears. Greek government bond yields fell by 5 basis points, signaling improved sentiment.

Greece’s inflation dynamics must be viewed alongside core macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 1.20% QoQ, supported by robust tourism and exports. Unemployment remains elevated at 12.50%, constraining wage-driven inflation. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.10% of GDP in Q3, reflecting improved tax collection and controlled public spending.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The ECB’s key interest rate stands at 3.25%, unchanged since September. Greece’s borrowing costs have declined modestly, with 10-year yields at 3.80%, down from 4.10% three months ago. Credit growth remains subdued, with bank lending to the private sector expanding at 1.50% YoY.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal discipline continues, with the government targeting a primary surplus of 1.50% of GDP for 2025. Public investment projects are accelerating, particularly in infrastructure and green energy, which may exert upward price pressures in the medium term.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Greece faces moderate external risks, including volatility in energy markets and geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, recent EU energy diversification efforts have mitigated some inflationary shocks from global supply disruptions.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Greek sovereign bonds rallied, with the 10-year yield dropping 5 basis points. The EUR/USD pair gained 0.10%, reflecting reduced ECB tightening expectations. The Athens Stock Exchange Composite Index (ATHEX) rose 0.30%, buoyed by optimism on inflation moderation.

Looking ahead, Greece’s inflation trajectory depends on multiple factors, including global commodity prices, domestic wage growth, and fiscal policy execution. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Inflation stabilizes around 1.50%, supported by continued energy price declines and subdued wage pressures.
• ECB maintains accommodative policy, fostering growth and financial stability.
• Fiscal reforms boost productivity, containing cost-push inflation.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Inflation hovers near 1.80%, with moderate upward pressure from rising public investment and wage growth.
• ECB signals gradual rate hikes but remains data-dependent.
• External shocks remain contained but require vigilance.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation rebounds above 2.50% due to renewed energy price shocks or supply chain disruptions.
• ECB accelerates tightening, risking growth slowdown.
• Fiscal slippage increases inflation expectations.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Greece’s inflation has shown a gradual decline since 2023’s peak of 5.10%, reflecting structural reforms and integration into EU markets. Demographic shifts and productivity gains may keep inflation moderate over the long term, but external vulnerabilities remain a key risk.

The November 2025 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY print of 1.60% signals a welcome easing of inflationary pressures in Greece. This trend supports a cautious but optimistic outlook for monetary policy and economic growth. However, vigilance is warranted given external uncertainties and fiscal dynamics. The balance of risks calls for flexible policy responses and continued structural reforms to sustain price stability and growth.

Key Markets Likely to React to Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY

Greece’s inflation data typically influences sovereign bond yields, currency pairs, and equity indices sensitive to economic growth and monetary policy expectations. Traders and investors closely monitor these markets for signals on ECB policy shifts and domestic economic health.

• ATHEX: Greece’s primary stock index, sensitive to inflation-driven cost pressures and consumer demand.
• EURUSD: Euro-dollar currency pair, reflecting ECB policy outlook and inflation trends.
• EURGBP: Euro-British pound pair, reacts to relative inflation and monetary policy divergences.
• GREK: Greek bank ETF, sensitive to interest rate changes and economic growth.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin-dollar pair, often viewed as an inflation hedge and risk sentiment barometer.

Extras: Inflation vs. ATHEX Index Since 2020

Since 2020, Greece’s Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY and the ATHEX index have shown an inverse correlation during inflation spikes. For example, the 2023 inflation peak of 5.10% coincided with a 15% correction in ATHEX, while recent inflation easing to 1.60% has supported a 7% rebound in the index. This relationship underscores inflation’s role as a key driver of equity market sentiment in Greece.

FAQs

What is the current Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY for Greece?

The latest figure for November 2025 is 1.60%, down from 1.80% in October, indicating easing inflation pressures.

How does Greece’s inflation compare historically?

Inflation peaked at 3.70% in August 2025 and was as high as 5.10% in 2023, so the current rate is near multi-year lows.

What are the main risks affecting Greece’s inflation outlook?

Key risks include energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and potential fiscal slippages that could reignite inflation.

Takeaway: Greece’s November 2025 inflation slowdown to 1.60% signals easing price pressures, supporting a stable monetary policy outlook amid balanced risks.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.