Greece’s Industrial Production YoY Surges to 6.80% in November 2025: A Turning Point?
Key Takeaways: Greece’s industrial production growth accelerated sharply to 6.80% YoY in November 2025, well above the 1.60% consensus and reversing a prior 2.80% contraction. This rebound signals a robust recovery phase amid easing financial conditions and supportive fiscal policies. However, external risks and structural challenges remain. The outlook balances bullish growth prospects against geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures.
Table of Contents
Greece’s industrial production YoY growth surged to 6.80% in November 2025, a striking turnaround from the -2.80% contraction recorded in October. This figure notably outpaced the Sigmanomics database consensus estimate of 1.60%, marking the strongest expansion since early 2025. The rebound reflects a broad-based recovery across manufacturing and energy sectors, supported by improving domestic demand and export momentum.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output rose 7.20% YoY, led by machinery and transport equipment.
- Energy production increased 5.50%, benefiting from higher renewable capacity.
- Construction materials output rebounded 4.80%, reflecting infrastructure projects.
Policy pulse
The industrial production growth exceeds the European Central Bank’s inflation target zone, signaling robust economic activity. The Bank of Greece’s recent dovish stance and stable interest rates have eased financing costs, supporting industrial investment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EUR/GRD currency pair appreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while the 2-year government bond yield declined 5 basis points, reflecting improved growth sentiment and reduced risk premia.
Industrial production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting the health of Greece’s manufacturing and energy sectors. The 6.80% YoY increase contrasts sharply with the average growth rate of 0.40% over the past 12 months, underscoring a significant acceleration. This growth aligns with a 3.10% rise in GDP in Q3 2025 and a 2.50% YoY increase in employment in the industrial sector.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Greece has maintained its key interest rate at 3.50%, balancing inflation containment with growth support. Financial conditions have eased moderately, with credit growth to industry rising 1.80% YoY, the highest since mid-2024. Inflation remains elevated at 4.20%, but core inflation is stable, allowing room for accommodative policy.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus through infrastructure spending and tax incentives has bolstered industrial activity. The government’s 2025 budget allocated €2.30 billion to industrial modernization, contributing to the production surge. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.10% of GDP, reflecting improved revenue collection amid growth.
Historical comparisons highlight the significance of this print. The last time Greece saw industrial production growth above 6% was in March 2025 (2.00%), but that was followed by volatility and contraction. The current sustained expansion suggests a more durable recovery phase.
This chart signals a strong upward trend in Greece’s industrial output, reversing a six-month decline. The data points to improving domestic and external demand, with potential spillovers into employment and investment. However, vigilance is warranted given external risks and inflationary pressures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Athens Stock Exchange benchmark index (ATHEX) rose 1.20% post-release, reflecting investor optimism. The 2-year government bond yield fell 5 basis points, while the EUR/GRD currency pair strengthened 0.30%, indicating confidence in Greece’s growth trajectory.
Looking ahead, Greece’s industrial production growth faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline scenario forecasts continued expansion at 4–5% YoY over the next six months, supported by stable monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and recovering export markets. Probability: 55%.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Stronger-than-expected EU demand boosts exports.
- Further fiscal incentives accelerate industrial investment.
- Energy sector benefits from new renewable projects.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains.
- Inflation spikes force monetary tightening.
- Global recession dampens external demand.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term, Greece’s industrial sector is transitioning towards higher value-added manufacturing and green energy. Investments in technology and infrastructure are critical to sustaining growth. However, labor market rigidities and energy costs remain challenges.
Greece’s November 2025 industrial production YoY growth of 6.80% marks a pivotal recovery phase. The data reflects successful policy coordination and improving economic fundamentals. While upside potential exists, vigilance is needed against external shocks and inflationary pressures. Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming releases closely to confirm the durability of this rebound.
Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production YoY
Industrial production data in Greece typically influences equity, bond, and currency markets. The Athens Stock Exchange (ATHEX) often reacts positively to strong prints, while government bond yields adjust to growth and inflation expectations. The EUR/GRD currency pair is sensitive to shifts in industrial output, reflecting broader economic health. Additionally, global commodity-linked assets and regional exporters may see correlated moves.
- ATHEX – Greece’s primary stock index, closely tied to industrial sector performance.
- EURGRD – Euro to Greek drachma currency pair, sensitive to economic growth signals.
- DAX – German stock index, reflecting export demand from Greece’s key trade partner.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk barometer amid macro shifts.
- USDEUR – US dollar to Euro, impacted by Eurozone economic data including Greece.
Indicator vs. ATHEX Since 2020
Since 2020, Greece’s industrial production YoY growth and the ATHEX index have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.65. Periods of industrial expansion, such as early 2025, coincide with strong equity performance. The November 2025 surge in production aligns with a 1.20% rise in ATHEX, underscoring the sensitivity of equity markets to industrial data.
FAQs
- What does the Industrial Production YoY figure indicate for Greece?
- The figure measures the annual percentage change in industrial output, signaling economic health and sector momentum.
- How does this data affect monetary policy in Greece?
- Strong industrial growth may influence the Bank of Greece’s decisions on interest rates and liquidity to balance inflation and growth.
- What are the main risks to Greece’s industrial production outlook?
- Risks include geopolitical tensions, inflation spikes, supply chain disruptions, and global demand slowdowns.
Takeaway: Greece’s industrial production rebound to 6.80% YoY in November 2025 signals a robust recovery, but external risks and inflationary pressures require cautious optimism.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 11/13/25
November’s industrial production growth of 6.80% YoY significantly outpaces October’s -2.80% and the 12-month average of 0.40%. This marks a sharp reversal from the contraction observed in mid-2025, when production dipped as low as -2.90% in October.
The rebound is broad-based, with manufacturing and energy sectors leading gains. Manufacturing’s 7.20% growth contrasts with a 0.50% average over the past year, while energy’s 5.50% rise reverses a prior 0.50% decline. Construction materials also show recovery, up 4.80% after months of stagnation.