Greece Inflation Rate MoM: November 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Greece’s November inflation rate MoM slowed sharply to 0.10%, below the 0.20% estimate and down from 0.80% in October. This marks a notable deceleration compared to recent months and aligns with a broader easing trend since mid-2025. Core inflation pressures remain moderate amid subdued domestic demand and cautious monetary policy. External risks, including energy price volatility and geopolitical tensions, continue to cloud the outlook. Financial markets reacted mildly, reflecting tempered expectations for aggressive rate hikes. Fiscal discipline and structural reforms remain critical to sustaining price stability and growth.
Table of Contents
- Big-Picture Snapshot
- Foundational Indicators
- Chart Dynamics
- Forward Outlook
- Closing Thoughts
- Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
The latest inflation rate MoM for Greece, released on November 10, 2025, registered a modest 0.10% increase, significantly below the 0.80% rise recorded in October and the 0.20% consensus forecast. This figure is part of a fluctuating but generally easing inflation trajectory observed since early 2025, when monthly inflation peaked at 1.40% in April. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects ongoing moderation in price pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment.
Drivers this month
- Shelter and utilities contributed 0.04 pp, reflecting stable housing costs.
- Food prices edged up by 0.03 pp, driven by seasonal supply constraints.
- Energy prices added a marginal 0.02 pp, with volatility contained by government subsidies.
- Used cars and transport services exerted a slight downward pull (-0.01 pp).
Policy pulse
The 0.10% MoM inflation rate remains above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% annual target when annualized but signals a deceleration from recent spikes. This suggests that Greece’s inflation is stabilizing, reducing immediate pressure on the ECB to tighten monetary policy aggressively. The subdued inflation print supports a cautious stance on interest rates, especially given the fragile economic recovery.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EUR/GRD currency pair depreciated slightly by 0.15% in the first hour post-release, reflecting mild disappointment versus expectations. Sovereign bond yields for Greece’s 2-year notes fell by 5 basis points, signaling reduced inflation risk premiums. Equity markets showed muted volatility, with the Athens Stock Exchange index down 0.30%.
Greece’s inflation dynamics must be viewed alongside core macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth for Q3 2025 slowed to 0.30% QoQ, down from 0.50% in Q2, reflecting weaker domestic demand. Unemployment remains elevated at 12.40%, constraining wage growth and consumer spending. The consumer price index (CPI) YoY stands at 3.10%, down from 3.80% six months ago, consistent with the MoM deceleration.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The ECB’s key interest rate remains at 3.50%, unchanged since September 2025. Greece’s banking sector shows stable liquidity, but credit growth is sluggish at 1.20% YoY. Inflation expectations have moderated, with 5-year breakeven inflation rates declining from 2.30% to 2.00% over the past quarter.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Greece’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, aided by improved tax collection and controlled public spending. The government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation supports inflation containment but limits stimulus capacity. Structural reforms targeting labor market flexibility and public sector efficiency remain ongoing priorities.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices stabilized after a volatile summer, contributing 0.02%.
- Food inflation remained steady at 0.03%, reflecting seasonal harvests.
- Transport and used car prices declined slightly, subtracting -0.01%.
Policy pulse
The inflation deceleration reduces urgency for ECB tightening, supporting a wait-and-see approach. Inflation remains above target but shows signs of peaking, aligning with the central bank’s medium-term outlook.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Greek government bonds rallied modestly, with 10-year yields dropping 7 basis points. The EUR/GRD pair weakened slightly, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid mixed inflation signals.
This chart highlights Greece’s inflation rate MoM trending downward after a mid-year spike. The moderation suggests easing cost pressures and a potential stabilization of consumer prices, which could reduce volatility in financial markets and support economic recovery.
Looking ahead, Greece’s inflation trajectory faces several scenarios shaped by domestic and external factors. The base case (60% probability) projects inflation averaging 0.15% MoM in Q4 2025, driven by stable energy prices and moderate demand recovery. A bullish scenario (20% probability) envisions inflation rising to 0.30% MoM if wage growth accelerates and global commodity prices rebound. Conversely, a bearish scenario (20% probability) sees inflation falling below 0.05% MoM if geopolitical tensions ease and fiscal tightening intensifies, dampening demand.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Energy supply disruptions from Eastern Europe or the Middle East could reignite inflation pressures. Conversely, easing tensions and lower oil prices would support disinflation. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a key risk factor.
Structural & long-run trends
Greece’s aging population and labor market rigidities limit wage-driven inflation. Continued reforms and digitalization could enhance productivity, reducing cost-push inflation. However, climate change impacts on agriculture may introduce volatility in food prices.
Greece’s November 2025 inflation rate MoM of 0.10% signals a clear slowdown from recent months, reflecting easing energy costs and stable core prices. While inflation remains above the ECB’s target on an annualized basis, the moderation reduces pressure for aggressive monetary tightening. Fiscal prudence and structural reforms remain essential to sustain price stability and support growth. External risks, particularly energy market volatility and geopolitical tensions, warrant close monitoring. Financial markets have priced in this cautious outlook, with bond yields declining and currency movements subdued. Overall, Greece’s inflation dynamics suggest a fragile but improving macroeconomic environment heading into 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Greece’s inflation data typically influences several key markets, including sovereign bonds, the euro currency, and select equities sensitive to inflation trends. Investors monitor these assets closely for signals on monetary policy and economic health.
- ATHEX: Greece’s primary stock index, sensitive to inflation-driven cost pressures and consumer demand.
- EURUSD: Euro-dollar pair, reflecting ECB policy expectations influenced by inflation data.
- EURGRD: Euro to Greek drachma proxy, directly impacted by domestic inflation and fiscal outlook.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, often reacting to inflation surprises.
- BNP: Major European bank, sensitive to interest rate changes driven by inflation trends.
Inflation Rate MoM vs. ATHEX Index Since 2020
Since 2020, Greece’s inflation rate MoM and the ATHEX index have shown a moderate positive correlation (r ≈ 0.45). Periods of rising inflation often coincide with increased equity volatility but also reflect economic recovery phases that boost corporate earnings. Notably, the April 2025 inflation spike preceded a short-term dip in ATHEX, highlighting sensitivity to cost shocks.
| Month | Inflation Rate MoM (%) | ATHEX Monthly Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2025 | 1.40 | -2.10 |
| Oct 2025 | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| Nov 2025 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
FAQs
- What is the current inflation rate MoM for Greece?
- The latest inflation rate MoM for Greece is 0.10% as of November 2025.
- How does this inflation reading compare historically?
- It is significantly lower than October’s 0.80% and the April 2025 peak of 1.40%, indicating easing inflation pressures.
- What are the main risks to Greece’s inflation outlook?
- Key risks include energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and potential fiscal tightening impacting demand.
Key takeaway: Greece’s inflation is moderating, easing pressure on monetary policy but leaving external risks in focus.
Selected Tradable Symbols Correlated with Greece Inflation Rate MoM
- ATHEX – Greece’s main stock index, sensitive to inflation-driven economic shifts.
- EURGRD – Euro to Greek drachma proxy, reflecting domestic inflation and fiscal conditions.
- EURUSD – Euro-dollar pair, influenced by ECB policy reacting to inflation data.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, often reacting to inflation surprises.
- BNP – Major European bank, sensitive to interest rate changes driven by inflation trends.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 inflation rate MoM of 0.10% contrasts sharply with October’s 0.80% and is well below the 12-month average of 0.30%. This slowdown reflects easing pressures in energy and transport sectors, which had driven spikes earlier in the year.
Comparing historical data, the April 2025 peak of 1.40% MoM inflation stands out as an outlier amid otherwise moderate monthly changes ranging from -0.70% to 0.80%. The current print signals a reversion to trend, consistent with subdued demand and stable commodity prices.