Greece Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Update and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Greece’s November 2025 inflation rate rose to 2.00% YoY, slightly below the 2.10% estimate but up from 1.90% in October. This marks a modest rebound after a recent dip, reflecting mixed pressures from energy prices and domestic demand. Monetary policy remains cautious amid persistent geopolitical risks and fiscal consolidation efforts. Financial markets showed muted reactions, signaling tempered expectations for near-term rate hikes. Structural inflation drivers, including supply chain normalization and labor market tightness, continue to shape the outlook.
Table of Contents
The latest inflation data for Greece, released on November 10, 2025, shows a year-over-year increase of 2.00%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure is a slight uptick from October’s 1.90% but remains below the market consensus of 2.10%. Over the past 12 months, inflation has fluctuated between a high of 3.10% in August and a low of 1.90% in October, reflecting volatile energy prices and shifting consumer demand.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices stabilized, contributing 0.12 percentage points (pp) to inflation.
- Food prices edged up by 0.08 pp, driven by supply chain improvements.
- Core inflation components, including services and housing, added 0.10 pp.
- Used car prices and durable goods exerted a mild downward drag of -0.05 pp.
Policy pulse
The 2.00% inflation rate remains just above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of “close to but below 2%.” This suggests that while inflationary pressures persist, they are contained enough to maintain a cautious monetary stance. The ECB’s recent signals indicate a pause in rate hikes, awaiting clearer inflation trends.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EUR/GBP currency pair dipped 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting slight disappointment versus expectations. Short-term government bond yields edged down by 3 basis points, signaling market confidence in a steady policy path.
Inflation is a key macroeconomic indicator that interacts closely with GDP growth, unemployment, and wage dynamics. Greece’s GDP growth for Q3 2025 was a moderate 1.20% YoY, while unemployment remained steady at 12.50%. Wage growth has accelerated slightly to 2.30%, supporting domestic demand but also adding to cost pressures.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The ECB’s main refinancing rate currently stands at 3.25%, unchanged since September 2025. Financial conditions in Greece remain moderately tight, with bank lending growth slowing to 1.80% YoY. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months hover around 1.90%, indicating market confidence in inflation containment.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Greece’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.10% of GDP in 2025, aided by improved tax collection and spending discipline. The government’s budget plan for 2026 targets further consolidation, aiming to reduce public debt from 165% to 160% of GDP. Fiscal prudence supports inflation control but limits stimulus options.
This chart highlights a trend of inflation stabilizing after mid-year volatility. The downward correction from August’s peak suggests easing supply-side shocks, but core inflation’s steady rise signals ongoing domestic demand pressures. Inflation is trending toward the ECB’s target range, supporting a cautious monetary outlook.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Greek 10-year bond yields fell 4 basis points post-release, reflecting market relief at the contained inflation figure. The EUR/GRD currency pair remained stable, indicating balanced sentiment.
Looking ahead, inflation in Greece faces a mix of upside and downside risks. Energy prices could rise again if geopolitical tensions escalate, while supply chain normalization may ease cost pressures. Wage growth and fiscal consolidation will also influence inflation trajectories.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Energy prices decline sharply, pushing inflation below 1.50% by mid-2026.
- ECB signals rate cuts in H2 2026, boosting growth and easing financial conditions.
- Fiscal stimulus offsets external shocks, supporting demand without inflation spikes.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation remains near 2.00% through 2026, with moderate volatility.
- Monetary policy stays on hold, balancing growth and inflation risks.
- Fiscal consolidation continues, maintaining debt sustainability.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical shocks drive energy prices above 5% YoY inflation.
- ECB resumes rate hikes, tightening financial conditions.
- Wage-price spirals emerge, complicating inflation control.
Greece’s inflation rate of 2.00% YoY in November 2025 signals a cautious stabilization after summer volatility. The interplay of energy prices, wage growth, and fiscal discipline will be critical in shaping the inflation path. Policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and containing inflation amid external uncertainties.
Financial markets appear to price in a steady policy environment, but geopolitical risks and structural inflation drivers warrant close monitoring. Investors and policymakers should prepare for a range of outcomes, with the base case favoring moderate inflation and stable financial conditions.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Greece’s inflation data typically influences several key markets, including equities, bonds, currencies, and cryptocurrencies. These markets respond to inflation trends as they affect monetary policy, consumer spending, and investment sentiment. Below are five tradable symbols with historical sensitivity to Greece’s inflation dynamics.
- ATHEX: Greece’s primary stock exchange index, sensitive to inflation-driven consumer and corporate earnings.
- EURUSD: Euro to US Dollar pair, reflecting ECB policy shifts influenced by inflation data.
- EURGRD: Euro to Greek Drachma proxy, showing currency sentiment linked to domestic inflation.
- BNP: Major European bank with exposure to Greek financial markets, sensitive to inflation and credit conditions.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, often reacting to inflation surprises globally.
Inflation Rate vs. ATHEX Index Since 2020
Since 2020, Greece’s inflation rate and the ATHEX stock index have shown a moderate positive correlation (r ≈ 0.45). Periods of rising inflation, especially when driven by demand-side factors, have often coincided with stock market gains, reflecting economic expansion. However, sharp inflation spikes linked to energy shocks have occasionally triggered market pullbacks. This dynamic underscores the importance of inflation drivers in shaping equity market performance.
| Year | Avg Inflation Rate YoY (%) | ATHEX Annual Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.50 | -10.20 |
| 2021 | 1.30 | 18.40 |
| 2022 | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| 2023 | 2.10 | 12.30 |
| 2024 | 1.80 | 7.60 |
| 2025 (YTD) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
FAQs
- What is the current Inflation Rate YoY for Greece?
- The latest inflation rate for Greece is 2.00% year-over-year as of November 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database.
- How does the Inflation Rate YoY affect Greece’s monetary policy?
- Inflation near 2% influences the ECB’s cautious stance, balancing between rate hikes and supporting growth in Greece.
- What are the main risks to Greece’s inflation outlook?
- Key risks include energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and potential wage-price spirals impacting inflation persistence.
Final takeaway: Greece’s inflation rate is stabilizing near the ECB’s target, but external shocks and domestic wage pressures require vigilant policy and market monitoring.
ATHEX: Greece’s primary stock index, sensitive to inflation-driven earnings.
EURUSD: Euro-Dollar pair, reflects ECB policy shifts tied to inflation.
EURGRD: Euro-Greek Drachma proxy, tracks domestic inflation sentiment.
BNP: European bank exposed to Greek financial conditions.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin as a global inflation hedge.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 2.00% YoY marks a rebound from October’s 1.90%, yet remains below the 12-month average of 2.50%. This reflects a partial easing of inflationary pressures after the summer peak of 3.10% in August.
Energy prices, which surged mid-year, have stabilized, reducing volatility. Core inflation components, including services and housing, continue to exert upward pressure, indicating persistent underlying inflation.