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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
HungaryHungary Balance of Trade climbed to 1,305M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Hungary Balance of Trade climbed to 1,305M in June 2026, released July 2026, up 506M from May's 799M reading. The print exceeded the 900M consensus by 405M. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 303M, vs 338.5M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
1305
Actual
900
Consensus
799
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±305.75 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 789
Actual: 1,305
Error: -516
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/HUF | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Hungary) was reported at 1,305.00 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 900.00 million by 405.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 799.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 535.80 million, ranging from 12.00 million to 1,305.00 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 637.00 million, up from the prior three at 336.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 338.81 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 406.10 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 1,294.75 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 305.75 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - HU
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About Balance of Trade — Hungary
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1,305 M, consensus 900 M. Prior reading (May 2026): 502 M. Before that (Apr 2026): 104 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - HU Events
| Tuesday, August 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | HU | Interest Rate Decision | 5.5 | 5.75 | 5.5 | 5.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | HU | Deposit Interest Rate | 4.5 | 4.75 | 4.5 | 4.50 | Low |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:30 | HU | Gross Wage YoY | 8.7 | 9 | 9.00 | Low | |
| Friday, August 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:30 | HU | Unemployment Rate | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 06:30 | HU | Balance of Trade | 1305 | 1305 | 732.00 | Low | |
| 06:30 | HU | Balance of Trade MoM | 1305 | 1305 | 1305.00 | Low | |