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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
HungaryHungary Balance of Trade fell to -481M in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Hungary Balance of Trade fell to -481M in August 2026, released September 2026, down 930M from July's 449M reading. The reading missed the 400M consensus by 881M. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 687M, vs 303M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 29 months.
Latest Release
-481
Actual
400
Consensus
449
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±427.5 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 192.25
Actual: -481
Error: +673.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/HUF | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Hungary) was reported at -481.00 million in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 400.00 million by 881.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 449.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 381.10 million, ranging from -481.00 million to 1,305.00 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 297.67 million, down from the prior three at 423.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 464.56 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 362.49 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 350.75 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 427.50 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 29, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - HU
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About Balance of Trade — Hungary
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -481 M, consensus 400 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 69 M. Before that (Jun 2026): 1,305 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.57) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - HU Events
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | HU | Unemployment Rate | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.78 | Low |