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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
HungaryHungary Balance of Trade fell to 104M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Hungary Balance of Trade fell to 104M in April 2026, released May 2026, down 1,181M from March's 1,285M reading. The reading missed the 1,250M consensus by 1,146M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 801.17M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 338.5M, vs 523M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 5th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
104
Actual
1250
Consensus
1285
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±252.63 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 931.75
Actual: 104
Error: +827.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Hungary) was reported at 104.00 million in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1,250.00 million by 1,146.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 1,285.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 503.22 million, ranging from 12.00 million to 978.00 million across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 260.33 million, down from the prior three at 545.00 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 286.95 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 426.57 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 1,140.50 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/HUF (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 252.63 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - HU
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About Balance of Trade — Hungary
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 104 M, consensus 1,250 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 924 M. Before that (Feb 2026): 665 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.