Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
HungaryHungary Budget Balance climbed to 424.1B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Hungary Budget Balance climbed to 424.1B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 380.6B from May's 43.5B reading. The print exceeded the -120B consensus by 544.1B. Budget Balance has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -566.63B, vs -1,053.35B in the prior 3-month window. Budget Balance is now the highest in 31 months.
Latest Release
424.1
Actual
-120
Consensus
43.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±565.33 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -127.75
Actual: 424.1
Error: -551.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Hungary) was reported at 524.30 billion in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 424.10 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -406.81 billion, ranging from -2,139.00 billion to 524.30 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 330.63 billion, up from the prior three at -1,258.57 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 811.79 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 1,027.45 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Budget Balance has averaged 241.50 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 565.33 billion.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Budget Balance - HU
Loading chart data...
About Budget Balance — Hungary
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 524.3 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 424.1 B. Before that (May 2026): 43.5 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - HU Events
| Tuesday, August 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | HU | Interest Rate Decision | 5.5 | 5.75 | 5.5 | 5.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | HU | Deposit Interest Rate | 4.5 | 4.75 | 4.5 | 4.50 | Low |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:30 | HU | Gross Wage YoY | 8.7 | 9 | 9.00 | Low | |
| Friday, August 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:30 | HU | Unemployment Rate | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 06:30 | HU | Balance of Trade | 1305 | 1305 | 732.00 | Low | |
| 06:30 | HU | Balance of Trade MoM | 1305 | 1305 | 1305.00 | Low | |