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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
HungaryHungary Budget Balance fell to -2,311B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Hungary Budget Balance fell to -2,311B in August 2026, released September 2026, down 2,835.3B from July's 524.3B reading. The reading missed the 320B consensus by 2,631B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -489.63B. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged 474.2B, vs -566.63B in the prior 3-month window. Budget Balance is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
-2311
Actual
320
Consensus
524.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±613.02 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 592.05
Actual: -2,311
Error: +2,903.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/HUF | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Hungary) was reported at -92.80 billion in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -2,311.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -592.96 billion, ranging from -2,311.00 billion to 524.30 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -626.50 billion, down from the prior three at -557.13 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 996.45 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1,004.98 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Budget Balance has averaged -53.93 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 613.03 billion.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Budget Balance - HU
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About Budget Balance — Hungary
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -92.8 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -2,311 B. Before that (Jul 2026): 524.3 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - HU Events
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | HU | Unemployment Rate | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.78 | Low |