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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
HungaryHungary Budget Balance climbed to 43.5B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Hungary Budget Balance climbed to 43.5B in May 2026, released June 2026, up 472.9B from April's -429.4B reading. The reading missed the 59B consensus by 15.5B. Budget Balance has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -871.7B, vs -1,258.57B in the prior 3-month window. Budget Balance is now the highest in 11 months.
Latest Release
43.5
Actual
59
Consensus
-429.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±534.05 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 59
Actual: 43.5
Error: +15.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.76 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/HUF | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Hungary) was reported at 43.50 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 59.00 billion by 15.50 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -429.40 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -500.19 billion, ranging from -2,139.00 billion to 43.50 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -687.73 billion, up from the prior three at -803.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 727.27 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 1,034.16 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Budget Balance has averaged 74.00 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/HUF, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 534.05 billion.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Budget Balance - HU
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About Budget Balance — Hungary
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 43.5 B, consensus 59 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -429.4 B. Before that (Mar 2026): -1,314 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.76) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.