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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
HungaryHungary Construction Output YoY fell to -12.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Hungary Construction Output YoY fell to -12.2% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 11.0% from June's -1.2% reading. The reading missed the -0.5% consensus by 11.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.26%. Over the past 3 months, Construction Output YoY averaged -5.95%, vs 2.03% in the prior 3-month window. Construction Output YoY is now the lowest in 10 months.
Latest Release
-12.2
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
-1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -4.8
Actual: -12.2
Error: +7.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (Hungary) was reported at -12.2% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.5% by 11.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.24%, ranging from -15.2% to 17.6% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -8.03%, down from the prior three at -1.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.2%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.37%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged -4.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 13, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Construction Output YoY - HU
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About Construction Output YoY — Hungary
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -12.2 %, consensus -0.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -1.2 %. Before that (May 2026): -10.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - HU Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | HU | Industrial Production YoY | 4.7 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:30 | HU | Gross Wage YoY | 7.5 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.93 | Low |