Hungary’s November 2025 CPI Release: Stability Amid Inflationary Pressures
Table of Contents
Hungary’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 was released on November 11, showing a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.30%, unchanged from October and slightly below the 4.40% forecast. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects a stable inflation environment after a volatile start to the year. The geographic scope covers Hungary’s national economy, with temporal comparisons spanning the past 10 months to contextualize recent trends.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices contributed 0.12 percentage points, reflecting ongoing volatility in global markets.
- Food inflation moderated, subtracting -0.05 percentage points from the headline rate.
- Core inflation components, including services and housing, remained elevated, adding 0.15 percentage points.
Policy pulse
The 4.30% CPI remains above the Hungarian National Bank’s 3% target but shows no acceleration. This steady reading supports the central bank’s cautious stance, maintaining current interest rates while signaling readiness to tighten if inflationary pressures re-emerge.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The HUF/USD currency pair strengthened 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market relief at the stable inflation figure. Short-term government bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, signaling reduced inflation risk premiums.
The November CPI reading of 4.30% YoY is consistent with the last three months, indicating a plateau after a peak of 5.60% in March 2025. The Sigmanomics database shows that inflation was highly volatile earlier this year, with a sharp drop from 5.60% in March to 4.70% in April, followed by a brief dip near zero in May and July, likely reflecting base effects and seasonal factors.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Hungarian National Bank has kept its base rate steady at 5.75% since September 2025, balancing inflation containment with economic growth. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit growth slowing to 3.20% YoY in October, down from 4.50% in mid-2025. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months hover around 3.80%, indicating some persistence in price pressures.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal tightening continues, with the government targeting a budget deficit of 2.80% of GDP in 2025, down from 3.50% in 2024. Public spending cuts and tax adjustments aim to reduce inflationary demand pressures. However, social transfers have been increased modestly to offset energy cost burdens on households.
Figure 1 below illustrates Hungary’s CPI trajectory over the past 12 months, highlighting the peak in Q1 2025 and the subsequent stabilization phase. The chart also compares core inflation trends, which have remained more resilient than headline CPI, reflecting ongoing wage growth and service sector price increases.
This chart reveals a clear transition from volatile inflation swings in early 2025 to a stable but elevated inflation regime. The persistence of core inflation above 3.50% signals that underlying price pressures remain entrenched, limiting the central bank’s room for easing monetary policy in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Hungary’s 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points post-release, reflecting market confidence in inflation stability. The HUF currency appreciated modestly, while breakeven inflation rates for 5-year bonds held steady at 3.90%, indicating balanced inflation expectations.
Looking ahead, Hungary’s inflation trajectory faces multiple influences. The base case scenario projects CPI easing gradually to 3.50% by mid-2026, assuming stable energy prices and moderate wage growth. This scenario carries a 55% probability.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Energy prices decline sharply due to easing geopolitical tensions.
- Fiscal consolidation accelerates, reducing demand-side inflation.
- Core inflation falls below 3%, allowing monetary easing.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Energy price shocks persist or worsen amid geopolitical risks.
- Wage pressures intensify, pushing core inflation above 5%.
- Fiscal stimulus increases, fueling demand-pull inflation.
Risks and opportunities
External shocks, including potential supply chain disruptions and regional geopolitical tensions, remain key downside risks. Conversely, technological improvements and energy diversification could ease inflationary pressures.
Policy pulse
The Hungarian National Bank is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with potential rate hikes if inflation breaches 4.50%. Market expectations currently price a 30% chance of tightening by Q2 2026.
Hungary’s November 2025 CPI reading confirms a stable but elevated inflation environment. The persistence of core inflation above target suggests that monetary policy will remain vigilant. Fiscal consolidation efforts and external factors will critically shape the inflation path in 2026. Market reactions indicate confidence in current policy but remain sensitive to geopolitical developments.
Investors and policymakers should monitor energy price trends, wage dynamics, and fiscal policy adjustments closely. The balance of risks leans slightly toward inflation persistence, but opportunities for easing remain if external conditions improve.
Key Markets Likely to React to CPI
Hungary’s CPI data significantly influences local and regional financial markets. The following tradable symbols historically track inflation trends or monetary policy shifts in Hungary and the broader Central European region. Monitoring these assets provides insight into market sentiment and risk appetite following CPI releases.
- MOL – Hungary’s leading oil and gas company, sensitive to energy price-driven inflation.
- EURHUF – The euro-to-forint exchange rate, reflecting currency strength amid inflation and policy changes.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and alternative asset reacting to macroeconomic shifts.
- OTP – Hungary’s largest bank, sensitive to interest rate and credit conditions influenced by inflation.
- USDHUF – The US dollar to Hungarian forint rate, reflecting cross-border capital flows amid inflation uncertainty.
Insight: Hungary CPI vs. MOL Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, Hungary’s CPI and MOL’s stock price have shown a positive correlation, particularly during periods of energy price shocks. For example, CPI spikes in early 2025 coincided with MOL’s share price rising by 12%, reflecting higher oil prices feeding into inflation. Conversely, CPI stabilization in late 2025 has seen MOL shares consolidate, indicating market expectations of moderated inflation. This relationship underscores the importance of energy sector dynamics in Hungary’s inflation outlook.
FAQ
- What does Hungary’s November 2025 CPI reading indicate about inflation trends?
- The 4.30% YoY CPI suggests stable but elevated inflation, with core pressures persisting despite easing energy costs.
- How does the CPI affect Hungary’s monetary policy?
- Persistent inflation above the 3% target keeps the central bank cautious, maintaining rates while signaling potential tightening if inflation rises.
- What are the main risks to Hungary’s inflation outlook?
- Key risks include energy price volatility, wage growth, and geopolitical tensions that could push inflation higher than expected.
Final Takeaway: Hungary’s November CPI confirms a plateau in inflation, balancing persistent core pressures against moderating energy costs. Policymakers face a delicate path to sustain price stability without stifling growth amid external uncertainties.
The November 2025 CPI of 4.30% YoY matches October’s figure and remains below the 12-month average of 4.70%. This stability contrasts with the sharp inflation swings seen in early 2025, where CPI peaked at 5.60% in March and dropped to near zero in May and July. The current plateau suggests that inflationary pressures have stabilized but remain elevated above the central bank’s target.
Month-over-month (MoM) inflation was flat at 0.00%, indicating no immediate acceleration or deceleration. Core inflation components, excluding volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 3.90% YoY, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures.