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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
HungaryHungary Gross Wage YoY fell to 8.7% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Hungary Gross Wage YoY fell to 8.7% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.3% from April's 9.0% reading. The reading missed the 9.2% consensus by 0.5%. Gross Wage YoY has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Wage YoY averaged 9.1%, vs 14.83% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
8.7
Actual
9.2
Consensus
9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.6 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 8.98
Actual: 8.7
Error: +0.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.80 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.80 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/HUF | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Wage YoY (Hungary) was reported at 8.7% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 9.2% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.73%, ranging from 8.5% to 26.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 8.97%, down from the prior three at 14.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.2%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.95%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Gross Wage YoY has averaged 10.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.6%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Wage YoY - HU
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About Gross Wage YoY — Hungary
DEFINITION
Gross Wage YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total amount of wages earned by employees before any deductions. It provides insight into the overall growth or decline of wages in a specific time period, allowing businesses and policymakers to assess the health of the economy and make informed decisions. This indicator is commonly used to track trends in labor market conditions and can be a useful tool for forecasting future economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 8.7 %, consensus 9.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 9 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 9.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.80) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - HU Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | HU | Producer Price Index YoY | -0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | -0.05 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | HU | HALPIM Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | 51.3 | 51.55 | Low | |