HALPIM Manufacturing PMI for Hungary: December 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
Hungary’s HALPIM Manufacturing PMI surged to 53.40 in December 2025, beating estimates and marking the highest reading in nine months. This signals a robust expansion in manufacturing, supported by easing supply constraints and stable domestic demand. However, geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures pose risks. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative, while fiscal stimulus continues to underpin growth. Financial markets reacted positively, with the HUF strengthening slightly. Structural shifts toward high-tech manufacturing and export diversification underpin a cautiously optimistic medium-term outlook.
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The HALPIM Manufacturing PMI for Hungary rose to 53.40 in December 2025, up from 51.00 in November and well above the 12-month average of 50.70, according to the Sigmanomics database. This marks the strongest monthly expansion since March 2025, reflecting improved production conditions and rising new orders. The reading comfortably exceeded the market consensus of 50.80, signaling renewed momentum in Hungary’s manufacturing sector.
Drivers this month
- Stronger domestic demand boosted new orders by 3.20% MoM.
- Supply chain delays eased, reducing input delivery times by 5 days on average.
- Export orders increased 2.50% MoM, supported by Eurozone recovery.
- Employment in manufacturing rose modestly by 0.40%.
Policy pulse
The PMI reading sits above the neutral 50 threshold, indicating expansion consistent with the Hungarian National Bank’s inflation target of 3%. The central bank’s recent decision to hold rates steady at 6.50% aligns with the moderate growth signals from manufacturing. Inflation remains elevated at 5.10% YoY, but easing supply bottlenecks may help temper price pressures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Hungarian forint (HUF) appreciated 0.30% against the euro within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved growth expectations. Short-term government bond yields declined by 4 basis points, signaling reduced risk premia.
Hungary’s manufacturing PMI is a key leading indicator for industrial output, employment, and business confidence. The latest 53.40 reading contrasts with the subdued 48.90 in September 2025, highlighting a rebound after a brief contraction phase. Core macroeconomic indicators support this positive trend: Q3 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.10% YoY, and industrial production rose 2.80% YoY in November.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Hungarian National Bank’s steady policy rate at 6.50% reflects a balancing act between curbing inflation and supporting growth. Credit conditions remain stable, with bank lending to corporates growing 4.20% YoY. Inflation, while above target, has shown signs of peaking, aided by lower energy prices and improved supply chains.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus continues to underpin manufacturing demand. The government’s 2025 budget includes a 3.50% of GDP increase in infrastructure and innovation spending, supporting industrial modernization. The budget deficit is projected at 2.80% of GDP, slightly below the EU’s 3% threshold, maintaining fiscal prudence.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and global trade uncertainties remain downside risks. However, Hungary’s diversified export base and strong EU trade ties mitigate exposure. The recent easing of semiconductor shortages has also reduced external supply risks.
Drivers this month
- Output index rose 2.60 points to 54.10, the highest since April 2025.
- New export orders climbed 2.50 points to 52.80, reflecting Eurozone demand.
- Supplier delivery times shortened by 7%, indicating supply chain normalization.
This chart shows a clear upward trend in Hungary’s manufacturing PMI, signaling a sustained recovery phase. The rebound from sub-50 readings in late summer to a robust 53.40 suggests improving industrial conditions and a positive outlook for Q1 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/HUF declined 0.30% post-release, reflecting stronger growth expectations. Hungarian 2-year bond yields fell 4 basis points, while equity markets showed mild gains, signaling investor confidence in the manufacturing sector’s recovery.
Looking ahead, Hungary’s manufacturing sector faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The PMI’s upward momentum suggests continued expansion into early 2026, supported by stable domestic demand and improving export markets. However, inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties could temper growth.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- PMI sustains above 53, driven by strong Eurozone demand and easing inflation.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting credit growth.
- Fiscal stimulus accelerates industrial modernization and exports.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- PMI stabilizes around 52, reflecting moderate expansion.
- Inflation gradually declines toward target, allowing steady policy rates.
- External risks contained, with supply chains normalizing.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- PMI slips below 50 if geopolitical tensions escalate or inflation spikes.
- Monetary tightening pressures credit and investment.
- Fiscal constraints limit government support amid global slowdown.
Policy pulse
The central bank is likely to maintain a cautious stance, monitoring inflation and growth data closely. Any unexpected inflation surge could prompt rate hikes, while sustained PMI strength may allow a gradual easing in late 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The HUF’s modest appreciation post-release suggests market confidence in Hungary’s growth prospects. Bond markets are pricing in stable rates, with 2-year yields steady near 6.30%.
Hungary’s HALPIM Manufacturing PMI reading of 53.40 in December 2025 signals a robust industrial expansion, reversing earlier softness and exceeding expectations. Supported by easing supply constraints, stable fiscal policy, and accommodative monetary conditions, the manufacturing sector is poised for moderate growth in early 2026. However, inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties warrant vigilance.
Structural trends toward high-tech manufacturing and export diversification provide a solid foundation for long-run resilience. Policymakers should balance inflation control with growth support to sustain momentum. Investors and market participants will closely watch upcoming PMI releases and inflation data for further signals.
Key Markets Likely to React to HALPIM Manufacturing PMI
The HALPIM Manufacturing PMI is a bellwether for Hungary’s industrial health and broader economic outlook. Markets that typically track this indicator include the Hungarian forint (HUF), Hungarian government bonds, and regional equity indices. Additionally, related global markets such as the EUR/HUF forex pair and select industrial stocks show sensitivity to PMI shifts.
- EURHUF – Reflects currency strength linked to manufacturing growth and trade flows.
- MOL – Hungary’s leading energy and petrochemical company, sensitive to industrial demand.
- OTP – Largest Hungarian bank, impacted by credit growth tied to manufacturing.
- BTCUSD – Proxy for risk sentiment, often influenced by macroeconomic data.
- USDHUF – Tracks USD strength relative to Hungary, sensitive to domestic growth signals.
Insight: HALPIM Manufacturing PMI vs. EURHUF Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Hungary’s HALPIM Manufacturing PMI and the EURHUF exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of PMI expansion typically coincide with HUF appreciation against the euro, reflecting improved trade balances and investor confidence. For example, the PMI rise from 48.90 in September 2025 to 53.40 in December 2025 corresponded with a 0.30% HUF strengthening. This relationship underscores the PMI’s value as a leading indicator for currency markets.
FAQ
- What is the HALPIM Manufacturing PMI?
- The HALPIM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey-based indicator measuring the health of Hungary’s manufacturing sector, based on new orders, output, employment, and supplier deliveries.
- How does the PMI affect Hungary’s economy?
- The PMI signals industrial growth or contraction, influencing GDP forecasts, monetary policy decisions, and investor sentiment in Hungary.
- Why is the PMI important for investors?
- Investors use the PMI to gauge economic momentum, adjust portfolio risk, and anticipate currency and bond market moves linked to Hungary’s industrial performance.
Key takeaway: Hungary’s manufacturing sector is gaining strength, with the December 2025 PMI signaling sustained expansion amid manageable inflation and stable policy, though external risks remain.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The HALPIM Manufacturing PMI rose sharply to 53.40 in December 2025, up from 51.00 in November and well above the 12-month average of 50.70. This rebound reverses a two-month dip that saw the index fall below 50 in September. The expansion is broad-based, with output, new orders, and employment all posting gains.
Compared to the previous year’s average PMI of 50.50, the current reading signals a stronger growth phase. The index’s upward trajectory since October reflects improving business confidence and easing supply chain pressures.