Hungary’s inflation rate on a month-over-month basis for November 2025 was reported at 0.00%, unchanged from October and consistent with the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a continuation of a rare period of price stability, diverging from the typical inflationary environment seen in recent years. The geographic scope focuses on Hungary (HU), with temporal coverage emphasizing the latest month and comparisons to the past year.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices stabilized after prior volatility, contributing 0.00 pp to inflation.
• Food prices showed no month-on-month change, halting a prior upward trend.
• Services inflation remained subdued, reflecting muted wage pressures.

Policy pulse

The current inflation reading sits below the Hungarian National Bank’s (MNB) 3% target, reinforcing a cautious stance on monetary tightening. The zero MoM inflation supports the central bank’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady at 13.00%, balancing inflation control with growth concerns.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Hungarian forint (HUF) showed minimal movement post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged down 2 basis points, reflecting market confidence in stable inflation. Breakeven inflation rates remained flat, signaling steady inflation expectations.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the inflation reading. Hungary’s GDP growth slowed to 1.80% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 2.30% in Q2, reflecting global trade headwinds and cautious domestic demand. Unemployment remains low at 3.90%, supporting consumer spending but not generating excessive wage inflation.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The MNB’s key policy rate has been steady at 13.00% since September 2025, aiming to anchor inflation expectations. Financial conditions remain tight but stable, with credit growth slowing to 4.50% YoY, reflecting cautious lending amid global uncertainty.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Hungary’s fiscal stance remains prudent, with the government targeting a deficit of 3.50% of GDP in 2025. Recent budget measures focus on supporting energy efficiency and social transfers without fueling inflationary pressures.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Hungary faces moderate risks from energy market volatility and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. However, recent stabilization in natural gas prices and EU support mechanisms have mitigated immediate inflation shocks.

Price components such as food, energy, and services all contributed neutrally this month, with no significant upward or downward pressure. Core inflation, excluding volatile items, held steady at 0.10% MoM, consistent with the overall flat headline figure.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Hungarian government bond yields softened slightly, with the 2-year yield dropping from 5.12% to 5.10% within the first hour. The HUF/USD exchange rate remained stable at 345.50, reflecting market confidence in the inflation outlook.

Looking ahead, Hungary’s inflation trajectory depends on several factors. The baseline scenario (60% probability) assumes continued price stability with MoM inflation averaging 0.05% over the next six months, supported by steady energy prices and moderate wage growth.

Bullish scenario

• Probability: 20%
• Inflation falls below 0.00% MoM, reflecting deflationary pressures from weak demand and stronger fiscal tightening.
• Monetary policy may ease, lowering rates by 50 basis points by mid-2026.

Bearish scenario

• Probability: 20%
• Inflation rebounds above 0.30% MoM due to renewed energy price shocks or wage acceleration.
• MNB tightens policy further, raising rates by 25-50 basis points.

Risks and opportunities

Upside risks include geopolitical disruptions and supply chain constraints, while downside risks stem from slower global growth and fiscal consolidation. Structural trends such as digitalization and labor market shifts may moderate inflation over the medium term.

Hungary’s November 2025 inflation rate MoM reading of 0.00% marks a notable pause in inflationary pressures. This stability offers breathing room for policymakers but requires vigilance amid external uncertainties. The balanced outlook suggests that inflation will likely remain contained near target levels, barring shocks. Market participants should monitor energy prices, wage developments, and fiscal policy adjustments closely.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM

The Hungarian inflation rate MoM influences several key markets, including government bonds, the forint currency, and select equities sensitive to inflation trends. The following symbols historically track inflation dynamics and monetary policy shifts:

• MOL – Hungary’s leading oil and gas company, sensitive to energy-driven inflation.
• EURHUF – The euro-to-forint exchange rate, reflecting currency market reactions to inflation data.
• OTP – Hungary’s largest bank, impacted by interest rate changes linked to inflation.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge in volatile environments.
• USDHUF – The US dollar to forint pair, sensitive to cross-border inflation and monetary policy differentials.

FAQs

What does Hungary’s inflation rate MoM indicate?

The MoM inflation rate shows the monthly change in consumer prices, reflecting short-term price pressures in Hungary.

How does the inflation rate affect Hungarian monetary policy?

Inflation readings guide the MNB’s interest rate decisions to maintain price stability and support economic growth.

Why is the inflation rate important for investors?

Inflation influences bond yields, currency values, and equity prices, affecting investment returns and risk assessments.

Takeaway: Hungary’s flat inflation rate MoM in November 2025 signals a critical juncture, balancing stable prices against potential future volatility.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.