Indonesia’s Balance of Trade Surplus Plunges to Eight-Month Low in February
Indonesia’s balance of trade posted a marked contraction in February, with the surplus falling to IDR 0.95 billion. This is a steep drop from January’s IDR 2.52 billion and well below the consensus estimate of IDR 2.70 billion. The latest reading is the smallest since June 2025, highlighting mounting pressures on the country’s external sector.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Non-oil exports: -0.70pp
- Oil & gas imports: +0.22pp
- Commodity prices: -0.15pp
Policy pulse
February’s surplus of IDR 0.95B is well below Bank Indonesia’s comfort zone, which typically favors surpluses above IDR 2B to support currency stability and reserves.
Market lens
Rupiah weakened on the release, reflecting investor concern over narrowing trade buffers. The sharp drop in the surplus has prompted renewed scrutiny of Indonesia’s export resilience and import demand, especially as global commodity prices remain volatile.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- February 2026: IDR 0.95B
- January 2026: IDR 2.52B
- December 2025: IDR 2.40B
- November 2025: IDR 4.34B
- October 2025: IDR 5.49B
- September 2025: IDR 4.18B
Trend signals
Indonesia’s trade surplus has declined for three consecutive months, falling from IDR 4.34B in November to the current level. The 12-month average stands at IDR 2.98B, underscoring the magnitude of February’s shortfall.
Market lens
Bond yields edged higher as investors priced in external vulnerability. The sustained downtrend in the surplus has raised questions about Indonesia’s ability to maintain its external buffers amid shifting global demand.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish (surplus rebounds above IDR 2B): 20–30%
- Base case (surplus stabilizes near IDR 1B): 50–60%
- Bearish (moves into deficit): 10–20%
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include a recovery in non-oil exports and stabilization in commodity prices. Downside risks stem from persistent import growth and weaker global demand. Policy support from Bank Indonesia remains a key variable.
Market lens
Equities traded sideways as investors weighed mixed signals from trade and domestic demand. The outlook hinges on whether export momentum can recover in the coming months.Closing Thoughts
Data source and methodology
Figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database and cross-verified with official Bank Indonesia releases. The balance of trade is calculated as the difference between total exports and imports, reported in billions of Indonesian rupiah (IDR).
Market lens
February’s data has reset expectations for Indonesia’s external position in 2026. The sharp contraction in the surplus will keep policymakers and investors alert to further shifts in trade dynamics.Key Markets Reacting to Balance of Trade
Indonesia’s trade balance readings often ripple across global markets, influencing equities, currencies, and commodities. The February plunge has drawn attention from investors tracking emerging market risk and regional trade flows. Below are select symbols directly impacted by Indonesia’s trade data.
- AAPL — Apple’s supply chain exposure to Southeast Asia makes its margins sensitive to trade shifts in the region.
- EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair often reacts to emerging market trade data, with risk sentiment affecting capital flows.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s volatility can spike on emerging market currency swings, as seen after Indonesia’s latest trade release.
| Indicator | Symbol | 2020 Value | Latest Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade (ID) | EURUSD | IDR 1.2B | IDR 0.95B | -21% |
Since 2020, Indonesia’s trade surplus has narrowed by 21%, while EURUSD has shown increased sensitivity to emerging market trade shocks. This underscores the interconnectedness of global currency and trade flows.
FAQ
- What is Indonesia’s latest balance of trade figure?
- Indonesia’s balance of trade surplus for February 2026 was IDR 0.95 billion, the lowest since June 2025.
- Why did the trade surplus drop so sharply in February?
- The decline was driven by weaker non-oil exports and higher oil & gas imports, alongside softer commodity prices.
- How does the balance of trade affect Indonesia’s economy?
- The balance of trade influences currency stability, foreign reserves, and investor sentiment, making it a key economic indicator for Indonesia.
Indonesia’s trade surplus has fallen to its lowest level in eight months, signaling a pivotal moment for the country’s external sector.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Sigmanomics Economic Database, Indonesia Balance of Trade, accessed 3/2/26.
- [2] Bank Indonesia, Official Trade Statistics, February 2026 Release.
February’s IDR 0.95B surplus marks a sharp drop from January’s IDR 2.52B and sits well below the 12-month average of IDR 2.98B. The last time the surplus was this low was June 2025, when it registered IDR 0.15B.
February’s reading is less than half the December 2025 figure and less than one-fifth of October’s peak. The trend since November shows a persistent and accelerating contraction in the trade balance.