Indonesia’s December 2025 Balance of Trade: A Moderated Surplus Amid Global Uncertainties
Key Takeaways: Indonesia’s December 2025 balance of trade surplus narrowed to IDR 2.40 billion, below expectations and down from November’s IDR 4.34 billion. This moderation reflects softer commodity prices and subdued export demand amid global economic headwinds. Monetary tightening and fiscal consolidation continue to shape macro conditions, while geopolitical tensions and currency volatility add external risks. Structural export diversification remains critical for Indonesia’s long-term trade resilience.
Table of Contents
Indonesia’s balance of trade (BoT) for December 2025 registered a surplus of IDR 2.40 billion, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This figure fell short of the market consensus estimate of IDR 3.80 billion and marked a significant decline from November’s IDR 4.34 billion surplus. The narrowing surplus signals a moderation in export growth amid weakening global demand and fluctuating commodity prices.
Drivers this month
- Export earnings slowed due to lower palm oil and coal prices, which together contribute over 40% of export revenues.
- Imports remained elevated, driven by machinery and raw materials for domestic manufacturing.
- Global supply chain disruptions and cautious demand from China and Europe weighed on trade flows.
Policy pulse
Bank Indonesia’s recent interest rate hikes to curb inflation and stabilize the rupiah have increased borrowing costs, potentially dampening import demand but also slowing export competitiveness. The current BoT reading suggests external sector pressures remain, complicating monetary policy calibration.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The IDR weakened 0.30% against the USD in the first hour post-release, reflecting investor concerns over the softer trade surplus. Indonesian government bond yields edged higher by 5 basis points, signaling cautious sentiment.
The balance of trade is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting the difference between exports and imports. Indonesia’s trade surplus is a key driver of GDP growth, foreign exchange reserves, and currency stability. The December 2025 surplus of IDR 2.40 billion compares to a 12-month average surplus of approximately IDR 3.90 billion, highlighting recent volatility.
Historical context
- December’s surplus is down 45% from November’s IDR 4.34 billion, the highest monthly surplus in 2025.
- Compared to December 2024, the surplus is 23% lower, reflecting a broader slowdown in commodity exports.
- Earlier in 2025, June’s surplus was a mere IDR 0.15 billion, showing the wide swings Indonesia’s trade balance experiences.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
Bank Indonesia’s policy rate currently stands at 6.50%, up 75 basis points since mid-2025. This tightening aims to contain inflation, which remains elevated at 4.80% YoY. Higher rates increase the cost of capital, potentially restraining import demand but also risking slower export sector investment.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Indonesia’s fiscal stance remains moderately contractionary, with a 2025 budget deficit target of 2.50% of GDP. Government efforts to reduce subsidies and improve tax collection may tighten domestic demand, indirectly influencing import volumes and trade balances.
Drivers this month
- Commodity export prices fell by 8% MoM, particularly palm oil and coal.
- Import volumes increased 3% MoM, led by capital goods and intermediate inputs.
- Global demand from key partners China and the EU slowed by 2.50% YoY.
Policy pulse
Monetary tightening and fiscal prudence have yet to fully stabilize the trade balance. The rupiah’s recent depreciation partially offsets export price declines but raises import costs, complicating trade dynamics.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The IDR/USD pair weakened 0.30% post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting investor caution amid the softer trade surplus.
This chart signals a reversal from the strong trade surplus trend seen in late 2025. The narrowing surplus suggests Indonesia’s external sector faces headwinds from commodity price volatility and global demand softness, warranting close monitoring in the coming months.
Looking ahead, Indonesia’s balance of trade trajectory depends on several factors, including commodity price trends, global demand recovery, and domestic policy responses. We outline three scenarios for the next quarter:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Commodity prices rebound by 10%, boosting export revenues.
- Global demand stabilizes, especially from China and ASEAN partners.
- Rupiah stabilizes, supporting export competitiveness.
- Trade surplus rises to IDR 3.50–4.00 billion.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Commodity prices remain flat or slightly down.
- Global demand grows modestly but unevenly.
- Rupiah remains volatile but contained.
- Trade surplus hovers around IDR 2.00–2.50 billion.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Commodity prices decline further by 10%.
- Global recession risks materialize, reducing export demand.
- Rupiah weakens sharply, increasing import costs.
- Trade surplus shrinks below IDR 1.00 billion or turns into deficit.
Structural & long-run trends
Indonesia’s export base remains concentrated in commodities, exposing the economy to price swings. Efforts to diversify into manufacturing and digital services are ongoing but require sustained investment and policy support. The trade balance will increasingly reflect these structural shifts over the next decade.
Indonesia’s December 2025 balance of trade data reveals a moderated surplus amid a complex global backdrop. While the external sector remains a pillar of growth, volatility in commodity markets and geopolitical uncertainties pose risks. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with export competitiveness. Structural reforms to diversify exports and enhance value chains will be crucial to sustaining Indonesia’s trade resilience.
Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade
The balance of trade is a critical indicator for markets sensitive to Indonesia’s external sector health. Currency pairs like USDPHP and USDIDR often react to trade data through currency volatility. Indonesian equities such as BBCA and ASII track export sector performance. Additionally, crypto assets like BTCUSD may reflect broader risk sentiment shifts tied to emerging market trade flows.
Indicator vs. USDIDR Since 2020
Since 2020, Indonesia’s balance of trade surplus has shown a moderate inverse correlation with the USDIDR exchange rate. Periods of rising trade surpluses generally coincide with rupiah appreciation, while trade deficits or narrowing surpluses align with rupiah depreciation. This relationship underscores the balance of trade’s role in shaping currency dynamics and investor confidence.
FAQ
- What is the significance of Indonesia’s balance of trade?
- The balance of trade measures the difference between exports and imports, indicating external sector health and influencing currency stability.
- How does the balance of trade affect Indonesia’s monetary policy?
- A strong trade surplus supports the rupiah and may ease inflation pressures, while a narrowing surplus can prompt tighter monetary policy to stabilize the currency.
- What are the main risks to Indonesia’s trade balance?
- Risks include commodity price volatility, global demand shocks, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations.
Takeaway: Indonesia’s trade surplus contraction in December 2025 signals external headwinds, emphasizing the need for policy agility and export diversification to sustain growth.
Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade
Indonesia’s balance of trade data significantly influences currency, equity, and risk sentiment markets. The USDIDR currency pair is highly sensitive to trade flows, reflecting rupiah strength or weakness. Indonesian blue-chip stocks like BBCA and ASII track export sector health and domestic demand. The Philippine peso via USDPHP often moves in tandem with regional trade trends. Lastly, BTCUSD can reflect broader emerging market risk appetite shifts tied to trade data.
Insight: Since 2020, Indonesia’s balance of trade surplus and the USDIDR exchange rate have shown a clear inverse relationship. When the surplus rises, the rupiah tends to strengthen, supporting investor confidence. Conversely, a shrinking surplus often leads to rupiah depreciation, highlighting the balance of trade’s critical role in currency valuation and market sentiment.
FAQ
- What is the balance of trade for Indonesia?
- The balance of trade measures the net difference between Indonesia’s exports and imports, indicating the country’s external economic position.
- Why does the balance of trade matter for the rupiah?
- A positive trade balance supports rupiah strength by increasing foreign currency inflows, while a deficit can weaken the currency.
- How can geopolitical risks affect Indonesia’s trade balance?
- Geopolitical tensions can disrupt trade routes, reduce demand, and increase costs, negatively impacting Indonesia’s trade surplus.
Final takeaway: Indonesia’s December 2025 trade surplus contraction underscores external vulnerabilities, necessitating continued policy focus on export diversification and macro stability.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The December 2025 balance of trade surplus of IDR 2.40 billion represents a sharp decline from November’s IDR 4.34 billion and is well below the 12-month average of IDR 3.90 billion. This drop reflects a combination of weaker commodity prices and sustained import demand.
Compared to the previous months, the surplus has contracted by 45%, reversing the upward trend seen since mid-2025 when the surplus peaked at IDR 5.49 billion in October. The data highlights Indonesia’s vulnerability to external shocks and cyclical commodity markets.