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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Balance of Trade fell to -1.61B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Indonesia Balance of Trade fell to -1.61B in May 2026, released July 2026, down 1.7B from April's 0.09B reading. The reading missed the 1.2B consensus by 2.81B. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 1.7B, vs 1.63B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 40 months.
Latest Release
-1.61
Actual
1.2
Consensus
0.09
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.22 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: -1.61
Error: +2.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Indonesia) was reported at -1.61 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.20 billion by 2.81 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.09 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.04 billion, ranging from -1.61 billion to 4.34 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.08 billion, down from the prior three at 2.00 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.93 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.36 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.23 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - ID
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About Balance of Trade — Indonesia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -1.61 M, consensus 1.2 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.09 M. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.32 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.69) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ID Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ID | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.9 | 47.4 | 46.70 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Balance of Trade | -1.61 | -0.79 | -1.23 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.44 | 0.1 | -0.24 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.76 | 2.8 | 2.77 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Exports YoY | -5.73 | 0.25 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.34 | 3.2 | 2.91 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Imports YoY | 22.16 | 25.3 | 25.30 | Low | |