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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Current Account fell to -4B in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Indonesia Current Account fell to -4B in January 2026, released May 2026, down 1.5B from December's -2.5B reading. The reading missed the -0.8B consensus by 3.2B. Current Account has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Current Account is now the lowest in 73 months.
Latest Release
-4
Actual
-0.8
Consensus
-2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1 billion
across last 11 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.8
Actual: -4
Error: +3.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Indonesia) was reported at -4.00 billion in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.80 billion by 3.20 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -2.50 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.83 billion, up from the prior three at -1.43 billion. In May readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -2.13 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.00 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Current Account - ID
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About Current Account — Indonesia
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -4 M, consensus -0.8 M. Prior reading (Oct 2025): -2.5 M. Before that (Oct 2025): -0.7 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.