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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Loan Growth YoY climbed to 12.67% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Indonesia Loan Growth YoY climbed to 12.67% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 1.16% from May's 11.51% reading. The print exceeded the 9.0% consensus by 3.67%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 8.92%. Over the past 3 months, Loan Growth YoY averaged 11.0%, vs 9.61% in the prior 3-month window. Loan Growth YoY is now the highest in 25 months.
Latest Release
12.67
Actual
9
Consensus
11.51
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.43 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 9.14
Actual: 12.67
Error: -3.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/IDR | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Loan Growth YoY (Indonesia) was reported at 12.67% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 9% by 3.67%. The reading rose from the previous value of 11.51%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 9.09%, ranging from 7.03% to 12.67% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 11.39%, up from the prior three at 9.02%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.83%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.27%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Loan Growth YoY has averaged 10.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.43%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Loan Growth YoY - ID
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About Loan Growth YoY — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Loan Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the amount of loans issued by a company or financial institution. It provides insight into the growth or decline of a company's lending activities and can be used to assess its overall financial health and performance. This indicator is commonly used by investors, analysts, and lenders to evaluate the strength and stability of a company's loan portfolio. A positive Loan Growth YoY indicates an increase in lending, while a negative value suggests a decrease.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 12.67 %, consensus 9 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 11.51 %. Before that (May 2026): 11.51 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ID Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ID | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.9 | 47.4 | 46.70 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Balance of Trade | -1.61 | -0.79 | -1.23 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.44 | 0.1 | -0.24 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.76 | 2.8 | 2.77 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Exports YoY | -5.73 | 0.25 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.34 | 3.2 | 2.91 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Imports YoY | 22.16 | 25.3 | 25.30 | Low | |