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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Loan Growth YoY fell to 13.26% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Indonesia Loan Growth YoY fell to 13.26% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.39% from August's 13.65% reading. The print exceeded the 12.5% consensus by 0.76%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 11.34%. Over the past 3 months, Loan Growth YoY averaged 13.47%, vs 11.42% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
13.26
Actual
12.5
Consensus
13.65
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.59 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 12.24
Actual: 13.26
Error: -1.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Loan Growth YoY (Indonesia) was reported at 13.26% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 12.5% by 0.76%. The reading fell from the previous value of 13.65%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.88%, ranging from 7.36% to 13.58% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 13.4%, up from the prior three at 11.39%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.21%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.34%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Loan Growth YoY has averaged 10.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.59%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 2) and Balance of Trade (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Loan Growth YoY - ID
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About Loan Growth YoY — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Loan Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the amount of loans issued by a company or financial institution. It provides insight into the growth or decline of a company's lending activities and can be used to assess its overall financial health and performance. This indicator is commonly used by investors, analysts, and lenders to evaluate the strength and stability of a company's loan portfolio. A positive Loan Growth YoY indicates an increase in lending, while a negative value suggests a decrease.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 13.26 %, consensus 12.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 13.36 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 13.36 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ID Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ID | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | 51.9 | 53.30 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.18 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.84 | 2.8 | 2.78 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.28 | 3.3 | 3.14 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Balance of Trade | 3.55 | 3.7 | 3.87 | Medium | |
| 05:00 | ID | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 6.27 | 1.42 | 1.42 | Low | |