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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia M2 Money Supply YoY fell to 9.2% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Indonesia M2 Money Supply YoY fell to 9.2% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.5% from March's 9.7% reading. The reading missed the 9.9% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 7.69%. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
9.2
Actual
9.9
Consensus
9.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.2 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 9.9
Actual: 9.2
Error: +0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/IDR | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M2 Money Supply YoY (Indonesia) was reported at 9.2% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 9.9% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 9.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.74%, ranging from 4.9% to 10% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 9.3%, up from the prior three at 8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.4%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.98%). In May readings over the past 3 years, M2 Money Supply YoY has averaged 7.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/IDR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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M2 Money Supply YoY - ID
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About M2 Money Supply YoY — Indonesia
DEFINITION
M2 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the amount of money in circulation in an economy. It includes all physical currency, checking and savings deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it provides insight into the overall health and growth of an economy. A higher M2 Money Supply YoY can indicate increased economic activity and potential inflation, while a lower reading may suggest a slowing economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 9.2 %, consensus 9.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 9.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 9.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.66) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.