AIB Services PMI: Irish Growth Slows Sharply in February
The latest AIB Services PMI for Ireland shows a significant loss of momentum in February 2026. The headline index dropped to 51.8, down from 54.5 in January and well below the 12-month average. This signals continued expansion, but at the weakest pace in five months.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Business activity: -2.7 points MoM
- New orders: decelerated
- Employment: modest rise
- Input cost inflation: persistent
Policy pulse
The February reading of 51.8 remains above the 50.0 threshold, indicating expansion, but is the lowest since September 2025’s 50.6. The Central Bank of Ireland does not set a formal PMI target, but policymakers monitor services activity closely for signs of economic cooling.
Market lens
Market response was subdued as the PMI’s drop was largely in line with consensus estimates. Investors are weighing the risk of a broader slowdown against still-positive growth signals. The euro held steady against major peers, and Irish equities saw little movement on the release.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
- February PMI: 51.8
- January PMI: 54.5
- December PMI: 58.5
- 12-month average: 54.98
Policy pulse
The PMI’s three-point drop since December signals a clear loss of momentum. While still above contraction territory, the index is now 3.18 points below its 12-month average. The European Central Bank continues to monitor regional PMIs for inflation and growth signals.
Market lens
Bond yields were unchanged as investors saw no immediate policy implications. The services sector’s resilience is being tested, with cost pressures and weaker demand weighing on sentiment.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: PMI rebounds above 54 (25–35%)
- Base case: PMI stabilizes near 52 (50–60%)
- Bearish: PMI falls below 50 (10–20%)
Drivers this month
- Input costs: remain elevated
- Demand: softening
- Employment: still positive
Policy pulse
With the PMI still above 50, policymakers are not signaling alarm. However, the rapid deceleration since December has increased downside risks for the Irish economy.
Market lens
Traders are cautious as the services sector’s slowdown could weigh on broader growth. Focus is shifting to March data for confirmation of trend direction.
Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
- Sharpest MoM decline since August 2025
- Growth remains, but at a five-month low
Market lens
Investors remain on alert for further signs of weakness in Ireland’s services sector. The next PMI release will be closely watched for confirmation of this slowdown.
Key Markets Reacting to AIB Services PMI
The AIB Services PMI is a key barometer for Ireland’s economic health, with ripple effects across equities, forex, and global sentiment. Movements in the index can influence Irish-listed stocks, the euro, and even global risk appetite. Below are verified tradable symbols most sensitive to shifts in Ireland’s services sector.
- AAPL – Apple’s Irish operations make it sensitive to local economic trends; services PMI shifts can impact regional supply chain sentiment.
- EURUSD – The euro’s value often reacts to PMI releases from eurozone members, including Ireland.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s risk sentiment correlation means Irish PMI surprises can influence short-term crypto flows.
| Year | AIB Services PMI | EURUSD Direction |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 45.0–53.0 | Up |
| 2021 | 50.0–58.0 | Flat |
| 2022 | 47.0–56.0 | Down |
| 2023 | 49.0–57.0 | Up |
| 2024 | 51.0–59.0 | Flat |
| 2025 | 50.6–58.5 | Down |
Since 2020, EURUSD has shown a moderate positive correlation with Ireland’s services PMI, especially during periods of strong expansion or contraction.
FAQ: AIB Services PMI: Irish Growth Slows Sharply in February
- What is the AIB Services PMI and why does it matter?
- The AIB Services PMI measures the performance of Ireland’s services sector. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. It is a leading indicator for economic growth.
- What does the latest PMI reading mean for Ireland?
- The February 2026 PMI of 51.8 shows the sector is still growing, but at the slowest pace since September 2025. This slowdown could impact employment and investment decisions.
- How does the AIB Services PMI affect markets?
- Movements in the PMI can influence Irish equities, the euro, and global risk sentiment, especially if the reading deviates sharply from expectations.
Slowing services growth in Ireland warrants close monitoring as headwinds build.
Updated 3/4/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Source: AIB Services PMI, Ireland, official release and Sigmanomics database, accessed 3/4/26.
February’s AIB Services PMI fell to 51.8 from January’s 54.5, marking the sharpest monthly decline since August 2025. The 12-month average stands at 54.98, underscoring the current reading’s relative weakness. The index peaked at 58.5 in December, then slid for two consecutive months.
Compared to six months ago, when the PMI was 50.9, the latest figure is higher but the downward trajectory since December is clear. The last time the index was this low was September 2025, at 50.6.