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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland Balance of Trade fell to 3.4B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Ireland Balance of Trade fell to 3.4B in May 2026, released July 2026, down 1.8B from April's 5.2B reading. The reading missed the 7B consensus by 3.6B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 6.4B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 4.65B, vs 4.1B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 6th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
7
Consensus
5.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.85 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 5.33
Actual: 3.4
Error: +1.93
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Ireland) was reported at 3.40 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 7.00 billion by 3.60 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.73 billion, ranging from 2.90 billion to 17.37 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.23 billion, down from the prior three at 4.29 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.76 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.30 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 7.83 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.85 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - IE
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About Balance of Trade — Ireland
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.4 B, consensus 7 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 5.3 B. Before that (Mar 2026): 4 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.25 | Low |
| 10:00 | IE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.20 | Low |