Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland Unemployment Rate held to 5.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Ireland Unemployment Rate held to 5.0% in August 2026, released September 2026. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.3%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 5.05%, vs 4.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 87th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5
Actual
5.1
Consensus
5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.13
Actual: 5
Error: +0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Ireland) was reported at 5% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.1% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.87%, ranging from 4.6% to 5.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.03%, up from the prior three at 4.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.3%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 4.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.17%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
Unemployment Rate - IE
Loading chart data...
About Unemployment Rate — Ireland
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 5 %, consensus 5.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5.1 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - IE Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IE | Residential Property Prices YoY | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low |
| 10:00 | IE | Residential Property Prices MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.70 | Low |
| 10:00 | IE | Balance of Trade | 5.3 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.85 | Low |