The latest Wholesale Prices Year-on-Year (YoY) reading for Ireland, released on November 21, 2025, shows a significant contraction of -3.50%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure is a marked decline from October’s -2.60% and below the market consensus estimate of -3.00%. Wholesale prices have been trending downward since May 2025, reflecting easing cost pressures in the supply chain and softer demand conditions.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices contributed -1.20 percentage points (pp) to the decline, reflecting lower global oil and gas costs.
• Intermediate goods prices fell by -0.90 pp, driven by reduced metal and chemical prices.
• Food and beverages prices remained stable, contributing marginally (-0.10 pp) to the overall decline.

Policy pulse

The wholesale price deflation aligns with the Central Bank of Ireland’s cautious stance amid easing inflation. The current reading remains well below the ECB’s 2% inflation target, suggesting limited immediate pressure for monetary tightening. However, persistent deflation risks could complicate policy calibration.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The EUR/USD currency pair dipped 0.15% within the first hour after the print, reflecting mild concerns over weakening price pressures. Short-term yields on Irish government bonds remained stable, while breakeven inflation rates edged slightly lower.

Wholesale prices serve as a leading indicator for consumer inflation and overall economic health. Ireland’s Wholesale Prices YoY have shifted from a positive 3.30% in January 2025 to a negative -3.50% in November, highlighting a rapid transition from inflationary to deflationary pressures within the year.

Historical comparisons

• January 2025: 3.30% YoY, reflecting post-pandemic supply constraints and demand rebound.
• May 2025: -3.60% YoY, the lowest point before a brief rebound in June.
• August 2025: -3.50% YoY, matching the current November reading, indicating a persistent deflationary environment.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a cautious approach, balancing inflation risks with growth concerns. Ireland’s wholesale price deflation reduces near-term inflationary pressures, potentially delaying further rate hikes. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit spreads stable but sensitive to global risk sentiment.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal stimulus measures, including targeted infrastructure spending and green energy subsidies, continue to support domestic demand. However, the government’s budget remains under pressure from rising social spending and external uncertainties, limiting scope for aggressive fiscal expansion.

Figure 1 illustrates the monthly Wholesale Prices YoY trend for Ireland in 2025, highlighting the sharp decline from early-year inflation to sustained deflation in the second half.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/IE00 bond yields showed minimal movement post-release, indicating market confidence in ECB’s steady policy approach. Inflation-linked swaps prices declined slightly, reflecting lower inflation expectations.

Looking ahead, Ireland’s wholesale prices are likely to remain under downward pressure in the near term, barring significant external shocks. The interplay of global commodity prices, domestic demand, and policy responses will shape the trajectory.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Global commodity prices stabilize or rise moderately.
• Domestic demand strengthens due to fiscal stimulus and export growth.
• Wholesale prices rebound toward zero or slight positive growth by Q2 2026.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Wholesale prices remain mildly negative, fluctuating between -3.50% and -1.00%.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative but vigilant.
• Gradual normalization of supply chains continues.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Global recessionary pressures deepen, suppressing demand.
• Energy prices fall sharply, exacerbating deflation.
• Wholesale prices decline further below -4.00%, risking deflation spillover to consumer prices.

Risks include geopolitical tensions affecting energy markets, potential fiscal tightening, and shifts in global trade dynamics. Conversely, technological adoption and green investments may support price stability over the medium term.

In summary, Ireland’s Wholesale Prices YoY data for November 2025 underscore a deflationary environment driven by easing input costs and subdued demand. This trend challenges policymakers to balance inflation control with growth support. Market participants should monitor commodity prices, fiscal developments, and ECB signals closely. Structural trends toward sustainability and digitalization may provide long-run price stability, but near-term volatility remains a risk.

Key Markets Likely to React to Wholesale Prices YoY

Wholesale price trends in Ireland influence multiple asset classes, reflecting shifts in inflation expectations, input costs, and economic momentum. Below are five key tradable symbols historically correlated with Ireland’s wholesale price movements, selected from the Sigmanomics database.

• CRH – Ireland’s leading building materials company, sensitive to input cost changes reflected in wholesale prices.
• EURUSD – The euro-dollar currency pair reacts to inflation data impacting ECB policy and trade flows.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin often moves inversely to inflation expectations and monetary policy shifts.
• RY – Royal Bank of Canada, a proxy for global financial conditions affecting Ireland’s export-driven economy.
• GBPUSD – The British pound-dollar pair, relevant due to Ireland’s trade links with the UK and currency spillovers.

FAQs

What is the significance of Ireland’s Wholesale Prices YoY data?

This indicator measures the annual change in prices at the wholesale level, signaling inflationary or deflationary trends that impact consumer prices and economic policy.

How does Wholesale Prices YoY affect monetary policy in Ireland?

Deflationary wholesale prices reduce inflation pressures, potentially delaying interest rate hikes by the ECB and influencing financial conditions.

What are the risks to the outlook for Ireland’s wholesale prices?

Risks include global commodity price shocks, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in domestic demand, which could either deepen deflation or trigger inflation rebounds.

Takeaway: Ireland’s wholesale price deflation signals easing cost pressures but poses challenges for inflation targeting and growth, requiring balanced policy responses.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.