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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IsraelIsrael Business Confidence climbed to 21.23% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Israel Business Confidence climbed to 21.23% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.08% from August's 20.15% reading. The reading matched the 21.0% consensus. Business Confidence has now risen for 7 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 19.12%, vs 11.26% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
21.23
Actual
21
Consensus
20.15
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.95 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 21.56
Actual: 21.23
Error: +0.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Israel) was reported at 21.23% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 21% by 0.23%. The reading rose from the previous value of 20.15%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 19.03%, ranging from 15.35% to 21.23% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 19.82%, up from the prior three at 17.26%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.8%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.05%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 18.74%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.95%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Oct 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business Confidence - IL
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About Business Confidence — Israel
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 21.23 %, consensus 21 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 20.15 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 18.09 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IL Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IL | Consumer Confidence | -20.37 | -22.22 | -20 | -20.19 | Low |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | IL | Exports | 5344 | 4100 | 4100.00 | Low | |
| 10:00 | IL | Imports | 11138.4 | 8500 | 8500.00 | Low | |
| 10:00 | IL | Balance of Trade | -5794.4 | -4400 | -4400.00 | Low | |
| 15:30 | IL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.20 | Low | |
| 15:30 | IL | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.70 | Low | |