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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IsraelIsrael Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -3.8% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Israel Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -3.8% in Q1 2026, released July 2026, down 0.5% from December's -3.3% reading. The reading matched the -3.8% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.65%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product QoQ averaged -3.55%, vs 5.65% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-3.8
Actual
-3.8
Consensus
-3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.38 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -4.05
Actual: -3.8
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Israel) was reported at -3.8% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of -3.8% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of -3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.73%, ranging from -4% to 12.4% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -3.63%, down from the prior three at 6.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.95%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.69%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 16, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - IL
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Israel
DEFINITION
Israel's Gross Domestic Product QoQ contracted by -3.800000% in June, matching the previous estimate but worsening from May's -3.300000%. The economy continued its decline, signaling sustained contraction in the second quarter. Market focus now shifts to upcoming policy moves amid persistent economic weakness. Updated 7/18/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -3.8 %, consensus -3.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -3.8 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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