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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IsraelIsrael Gross Domestic Product QoQ held to -3.8% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Israel Gross Domestic Product QoQ held to -3.8% in Q2 2026, released August 2026. The reading missed the 6.9% consensus by 10.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.67%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product QoQ averaged -3.8%, vs 1.4% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
-3.8
Actual
6.9
Consensus
-3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.38 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 6.78
Actual: -3.8
Error: +10.57
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Israel) was reported at -3.8% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 6.9% by 10.7%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.71%, ranging from -4% to 12.4% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -3.8%, down from the prior three at 1.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.97%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.32%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - IL
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Israel
DEFINITION
Israel's Gross Domestic Product QoQ surged to 15.400000%, sharply beating the 6.900000% estimate for August 2026. This marks a dramatic rebound from July's -3.800000%, signaling a strong economic expansion. Markets will closely watch upcoming data for confirmation amid current central bank caution. Updated 8/16/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 15.4 %, consensus 6.9 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -3.8 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IL Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IL | Imports | 11138.4 | 9694.6 | 8200 | 9669.20 | Low |
| 10:00 | IL | Balance of Trade | -5794.4 | -4227.3 | -2700 | -4247.20 | Low |
| 10:00 | IL | Exports | 5344 | 5467.3 | 5500 | 5422.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | IL | Unemployment Rate | 3.1 | 3 | 2.95 | Low | |
| 15:30 | IL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 15:30 | IL | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.45 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | IL | GDP Growth Annualized | 15.4 | -2.2 | 15.4 | 15.28 | Low |
| 10:00 | IL | Current Account | -0.107 | -0.3 | 0.15 | Low | |