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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IsraelIsrael Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 3.3% in Q4 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
Israel Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 3.3% in Q4 2025, released April 2026, down 9.4% from September's 12.7% reading. The reading missed the 4.2% consensus by 0.9%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.28%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product QoQ averaged 6.43%, vs 12.05% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 38th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.3
Actual
4.2
Consensus
12.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.38 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 3.68
Actual: 4.2
Error: -0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Israel) was reported at -3.3% in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.97%, ranging from -4% to 12.4% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.63%, down from the prior three at 11.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - IL
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Israel
DEFINITION
Israel's Gross Domestic Product QoQ contracted by -3.300000% in Q1 2026, a sharp reversal from Q4 2025's 2.900000% growth. This decline marks a significant economic slowdown following the previous quarter's expansion. Market focus now shifts to upcoming data releases and central bank responses amid this downturn. Updated 5/17/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -3.3 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 3.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 4.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.