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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IsraelIsrael Gross Domestic Product QoQ held to -3.8% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Israel Gross Domestic Product QoQ held to -3.8% in Q2 2026, released August 2026. The reading missed the 6.9% consensus by 10.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.67%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product QoQ averaged -3.8%, vs 1.4% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
-3.8
Actual
6.9
Consensus
-3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.38 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 6.78
Actual: -3.8
Error: +10.57
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Israel) was reported at -3.8% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 6.9% by 10.7%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.04%, ranging from -3.8% to 12.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -3.8%, down from the prior three at 1.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.9%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.2%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - IL
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Israel
DEFINITION
Israel's Gross Domestic Product QoQ surged to 15.400000%, sharply beating the 6.900000% estimate for August 2026. This marks a dramatic rebound from July's -3.800000%, signaling a strong economic expansion. Markets will closely watch upcoming data for confirmation amid current central bank caution. Updated 8/16/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 15.4 %, consensus 6.9 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -3.8 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IL Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IL | Inflation Expectations | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.55 | Low |