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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia WPI Fuel YoY climbed to 25.85% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
India WPI Fuel YoY climbed to 25.85% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 2.92% from August's 22.93% reading. The print exceeded the 23.4% consensus by 2.45%. WPI Fuel YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, WPI Fuel YoY averaged 21.49%, vs 27.48% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
25.85
Actual
23.4
Consensus
22.93
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.37 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 25.4
Actual: 25.85
Error: -0.46
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
WPI Fuel YoY (India) was reported at 25.85% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 23.4% by 2.45%. The reading rose from the previous value of 22.93%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 12.4%, ranging from -4.01% to 30.33% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 22.94%, down from the prior three at 27.48%. Volatility over the past year (σ 14.25%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.67%). In October readings over the past 3 years, WPI Fuel YoY has averaged 3.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NIFTY 50 (Bullish NIFTY 50). A secondary relationship exists with USD/INR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.37%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MPC Meeting Minutes (Oct 21) and S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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WPI Fuel YoY - IN
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About WPI Fuel YoY — India
DEFINITION
WPI Fuel YoY stands for Wholesale Price Index Fuel Year-over-Year and is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of fuel at the wholesale level over a 12-month period. It is used by economists and investors to track inflation and gauge the overall health of the economy. A higher WPI Fuel YoY indicates an increase in fuel prices, which can have a ripple effect on consumer prices and impact the cost of goods and services. This indicator is an important tool for businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about pricing and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 25.85 %, consensus 23.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 22.93 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 20.05 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NIFTY 50 (Bullish NIFTY 50, r=0.66) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IN | Balance of Trade | -30.21 | -26.86 | -29.5 | -29.86 | Medium |
| 09:00 | IN | Imports | 74.61 | 70.67 | 69 | 71.81 | Low |
| 09:00 | IN | Exports | 44.4 | 43.81 | 39.5 | 41.95 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Unemployment Rate | 5 | 5 | 5.2 | 5.10 | Low |
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:30 | IN | Bank Loan Growth YoY | 18.1 | 13.3 | 13.30 | Low | |