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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia WPI Fuel YoY climbed to 22.93% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
India WPI Fuel YoY climbed to 22.93% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 2.88% from July's 20.05% reading. The print exceeded the 15.0% consensus by 7.93%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 6.91%. Over the past 3 months, WPI Fuel YoY averaged 23.73%, vs 18.7% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
22.93
Actual
15
Consensus
20.05
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.37 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 15.39
Actual: 22.93
Error: -7.54
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
WPI Fuel YoY (India) was reported at 22.93% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 15% by 7.93%. The reading rose from the previous value of 20.05%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.73%, ranging from -4.01% to 30.33% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 23.46%, up from the prior three at 17.09%. Volatility over the past year (σ 14.02%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.81%). In September readings over the past 3 years, WPI Fuel YoY has averaged 3.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NIFTY 50 (Bullish NIFTY 50). A secondary relationship exists with USD/INR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.37%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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WPI Fuel YoY - IN
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About WPI Fuel YoY — India
DEFINITION
WPI Fuel YoY stands for Wholesale Price Index Fuel Year-over-Year and is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of fuel at the wholesale level over a 12-month period. It is used by economists and investors to track inflation and gauge the overall health of the economy. A higher WPI Fuel YoY indicates an increase in fuel prices, which can have a ripple effect on consumer prices and impact the cost of goods and services. This indicator is an important tool for businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about pricing and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 22.93 %, consensus 15 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 20.05 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 27.41 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NIFTY 50 (Bullish NIFTY 50, r=0.68) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 8.37 | 8.29 | 8.5 | 9.11 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.92 | 9.78 | 9.89 | 10.04 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Food Index YoY | 7.05 | 6.65 | 6.7 | 7.38 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Fuel YoY | 22.93 | 20.05 | 15 | 18.31 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.82 | 4.44 | 4.8 | 4.81 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IN | Balance of Trade | -31.98 | -33 | -33.61 | Medium | |
| 10:30 | IN | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.30 | Low | |