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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IcelandIceland Balance of Trade fell to -63.1K in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Iceland Balance of Trade fell to -63.1K in August 2026, released September 2026, down 23.7K from July's -39.4K reading. The reading missed the -46.4K consensus by 16.7K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -38.61K. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -49K, vs -53.13K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 11th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-63.1
Actual
-46.4
Consensus
-39.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±11.39 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -49.48
Actual: -63.1
Error: +13.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.87 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Iceland) was reported at -63 thousand in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -46 thousand by 17 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of -39 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -38 thousand, ranging from -63 thousand to 0 thousand across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -54 thousand, down from the prior three at -22 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 20 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 14 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -43 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 11 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - IS
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About Balance of Trade — Iceland
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -63.1 K, consensus -46.4 K. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -40.6 K. Before that (Jun 2026): -57.4 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.87) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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