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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IcelandIceland Balance of Trade climbed to -45.7K in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Iceland Balance of Trade climbed to -45.7K in September 2026, released October 2026, up 17.4K from August's -63.1K reading. The reading missed the -40.8K consensus by 4.9K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -40.18K. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -51.85K, vs -59.63K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-45.7
Actual
-40.8
Consensus
-63.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.25 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -42.63
Actual: -45.7
Error: +3.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Iceland) was reported at -46 thousand in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -41 thousand by 5 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of -63 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -38 thousand, ranging from -63 thousand to 0 thousand across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -50 thousand, down from the prior three at -41 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 20 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 14 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -40 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - IS
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About Balance of Trade — Iceland
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -45.7 K, consensus -40.8 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -63.1 K. Before that (Jul 2026): -40.6 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.61) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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