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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IcelandIceland Producer Price Index YoY fell to 12.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Iceland Producer Price Index YoY fell to 12.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.2% from August's 13.7% reading. The reading missed the 13.8% consensus by 1.3%. Producer Price Index YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 16.15%, vs 16.07% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 78th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
12.5
Actual
13.8
Consensus
13.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.31 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 12.3
Actual: 12.5
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Iceland) was reported at 12.5% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 13.8% by 1.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 13.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.99%, ranging from 3% to 19.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 14.93%, down from the prior three at 16.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.07%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.31%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - IS
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Iceland
DEFINITION
Iceland's Producer Price Index YoY came in at 12.500000% for October, missing the estimate of 13.800000% and down from September's 13.700000%. The decline signals a continued easing in producer inflation after a peak of 19.4% in July. Market focus remains on how this trend will influence the Central Bank of Iceland's monetary policy stance. Updated 10/23/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 12.5 %, consensus 13.8 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 13.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 18.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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