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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Business Confidence climbed to 89.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy Business Confidence climbed to 89.6% in July 2026, up 1.0% from June's 88.6% reading. The reading matched the 88.9% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.8%. Business Confidence is now the highest in 30 months.
Latest Release
89.6
Actual
88.9
Consensus
88.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 88.9
Actual: 87.9
Error: +1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Italy) was reported at 89.6% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 88.9% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 88.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 88.38%, ranging from 87.3% to 89.6% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 88.4%, down from the prior three at 89.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.72%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.64%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 87.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Business Confidence - IT
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About Business Confidence — Italy
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 89.6 %, consensus 88.9 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 87.9 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 87.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bearish DAX, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |