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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Business Confidence climbed to 89.9% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Italy Business Confidence climbed to 89.9% in August 2026, up 0.2% from July's 89.7% reading. The reading matched the 90.0% consensus. Business Confidence has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Business Confidence is now the highest in 31 months.
Latest Release
89.9
Actual
90
Consensus
89.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 90.35
Actual: 89.9
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Italy) was reported at 89.9% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 90% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 89.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 88.75%, ranging from 87.3% to 89.9% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 89.13%, up from the prior three at 88.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.79%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.66%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 88.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Business Confidence - IT
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About Business Confidence — Italy
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 89.9 %, consensus 90 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 89.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 87.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |