Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Business Confidence held to 87.9% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Italy Business Confidence held to 87.9% in May 2026. The reading matched the 87.5% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.4%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 88.35%, vs 88.7% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
87.9
Actual
87.5
Consensus
87.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 88.9
Actual: 87.9
Error: +1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Italy) was reported at 87.9% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 87.5% by 0.4%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 88.23%, ranging from 87.3% to 89.6% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 88.4%, down from the prior three at 89.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.74%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.57%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 87.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Business Confidence - IT
Loading chart data...
About Business Confidence — Italy
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 87.9 %, consensus 87.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 87.9 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 88.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bearish DAX, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.