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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.6 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.6 in February 2026, released March 2026, up 2.5 from January's 48.1 reading. The reading matched the 49 consensus. HCOB Manufacturing PMI has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HCOB Manufacturing PMI averaged 48, vs 49.83 in the prior 3-month window. HCOB Manufacturing PMI is now the highest in 34 months.
Latest Release
50.6
Actual
49
Consensus
48.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.97
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 48.25
Actual: 50.6
Error: -2.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Italy) was reported at 50.60 in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 49.00 by 1.60. The reading rose from the previous value of 48.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.54, ranging from 47.90 to 50.60 across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 48.87, down from the prior three at 49.83. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.01) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.27). In March readings over the past 3 years, HCOB Manufacturing PMI has averaged 48.90.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.97.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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HCOB Manufacturing PMI - IT
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About HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Italy
DEFINITION
The HCOB Manufacturing PMI is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in the HCOB region. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the manufacturing industry, including factors such as production levels, new orders, and employment. This data is widely used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions and assess the economic outlook of the region. A high PMI reading indicates a strong and expanding manufacturing sector, while a low reading may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 50.6, consensus 49. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 48.1. Before that (Dec 2025): 47.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.