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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Industrial Sales MoM fell to -0.9% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Italy Industrial Sales MoM fell to -0.9% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 2.6% from July's 1.7% reading. The reading missed the -0.8% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.43%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Sales MoM averaged 0.35%, vs 0.97% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.9
Actual
-0.8
Consensus
1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.81 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.68
Actual: -0.9
Error: +0.22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Sales MoM (Italy) was reported at -0.9% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.8% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.31%, ranging from -1% to 2.1% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.07%, down from the prior three at 0.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.06%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.72%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Sales MoM has averaged -0.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.81%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Industrial Sales MoM - IT
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About Industrial Sales MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
Industrial Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in sales of goods produced by industrial companies over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current state of the industrial sector and can help investors and analysts make informed decisions about the overall health of the economy. A positive MoM growth in industrial sales indicates a strong demand for goods, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.9 %, consensus -0.8 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.7 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.25 | High |
| 11:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 91.18 | Medium |
| 11:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 91.9 | 92 | 92.15 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High |
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.80 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.43 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.68 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.88 | Low |