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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 7.8% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Italy Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 7.8% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 2.0% from June's 5.8% reading. The print exceeded the 5.9% consensus by 1.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.77%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 6.55%, vs 1.68% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
7.8
Actual
5.9
Consensus
5.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.85
Actual: 7.8
Error: -1.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Italy) was reported at 7.8% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.9% by 1.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.11%, ranging from -2.7% to 7.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.97%, up from the prior three at 0.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.79%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.54%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Producer Price Index YoY has averaged 3.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - IT
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Producer Price Index YoY rose to 7.8% in August, surpassing the 5.9% estimate and up from July's 5.8%. This marks a significant acceleration in producer price inflation, indicating mounting cost pressures in the supply chain. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and ECB policy responses amid persistent price gains. Updated 9/2/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 7.8 %, consensus 5.9 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 5.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 7.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |