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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 13.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Italy Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 13.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 2.9% from August's 10.9% reading. The print exceeded the 11.2% consensus by 2.6%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.99%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 9.87%, vs 6.63% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the highest in 19 months.
Latest Release
13.8
Actual
11.2
Consensus
10.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 11.88
Actual: 13.8
Error: -1.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Italy) was reported at 13.8% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 11.2% by 2.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 10.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.24%, ranging from -2.7% to 13.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 10.83%, up from the prior three at 6.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.37%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.75%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - IT
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Producer Price Index YoY surged to 13.800% in October, beating the 11.200% estimate and rising sharply from September's 10.900%. This acceleration signals mounting inflationary pressures in the producer sector after steady increases since June. Market participants will closely watch upcoming inflation data and ECB policy responses amid persistent price gains. Updated 10/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 13.8 %, consensus 11.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 10.9 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 10.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.25 | High |
| 11:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 91.18 | Medium |
| 11:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 91.9 | 92 | 92.15 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High |
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.80 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.43 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.68 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.88 | Low |