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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Producer Price Index YoY fell to 5.8% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy Producer Price Index YoY fell to 5.8% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 1.5% from May's 7.3% reading. The print exceeded the 5.4% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.49%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 7.05%, vs -0.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 82nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.8
Actual
5.4
Consensus
7.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.82 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.68
Actual: 5.8
Error: -1.12
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Italy) was reported at 5.8% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.4% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.63%, ranging from -2.7% to 7.3% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.63%, up from the prior three at -1.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.82%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - IT
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Producer Price Index YoY came in at 5.800000% for July, missing the 5.400000% estimate but down from June's 7.300000%. The data shows a continued deceleration in producer price inflation, easing from the prior month’s peak. Markets will watch upcoming inflation reports closely as the central bank maintains a cautious stance. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 5.8 %, consensus 5.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 7.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 6.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |