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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Services PMI fell to 52.3 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Italy Services PMI fell to 52.3 in February 2026, released March 2026, down 0.6 from January's 52.9 reading. The reading matched the 52.6 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.7. Over the past 3 months, Services PMI averaged 52.2, vs 53.83 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 38th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
52.3
Actual
52.6
Consensus
52.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 52.33
Actual: 52.3
Error: +0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Services PMI (Italy) was reported at 52.30 in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 52.60 by 0.30. The reading fell from the previous value of 52.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.75, ranging from 51.50 to 55.00 across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 52.23, down from the prior three at 53.83.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Services PMI - IT
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About Services PMI — Italy
DEFINITION
Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector in a country. It provides valuable insights into the health of the economy by tracking changes in business activity, new orders, employment, and prices. A high Services PMI indicates a growing services sector, while a low PMI suggests a contraction. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic outlook.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 52.3, consensus 52.6. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 52.9. Before that (Dec 2025): 51.5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.