Jordan’s inflation rate for November 2025 increased by 0.07% month-over-month (MoM), according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This figure is below the market consensus estimate of 0.20% and slightly lower than October’s 0.10% reading. Over the past 12 months, inflation has averaged roughly 0.09% MoM, indicating a relatively stable but modest upward trend.

Geographic & Temporal Scope

The inflation data covers the entire Kingdom of Jordan, reflecting consumer price changes from October to November 2025. This period is critical as it captures seasonal demand shifts and the impact of recent government policies. Comparisons with previous months highlight a moderation after mid-year volatility, where inflation peaked at 0.21% in June and dipped into negative territory in August and September.

Core Macroeconomic Indicators

Alongside inflation, Jordan’s GDP growth remains steady at an estimated 3.50% annualized rate, while unemployment hovers near 15%, reflecting structural labor market challenges. The central bank’s benchmark interest rate has held at 3.25%, supporting stable financial conditions. Currency stability of the Jordanian dinar (JOD) against the US dollar has helped contain imported inflation pressures.

Jordan’s inflation dynamics are shaped by monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and external factors. The 0.07% MoM inflation rate in November is consistent with the central bank’s target range of 1-3% annual inflation, suggesting price stability in the near term.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Central Bank of Jordan has maintained a cautious stance, keeping interest rates steady to balance growth and inflation. Liquidity conditions remain ample, with credit growth at 5% year-over-year. Inflation expectations are anchored, supported by a stable exchange rate regime and prudent monetary interventions.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately tight, with the government targeting a deficit of 3.80% of GDP in 2025. Recent subsidy reforms and tax adjustments aim to improve revenue without stoking inflation. Public investment in infrastructure continues, but spending restraint limits overheating risks.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Jordan faces ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region, which could disrupt trade and energy supplies. Recent volatility in global oil prices poses upside inflation risks. However, diversified import sources and strategic reserves mitigate immediate shocks. The refugee influx continues to pressure public services but has limited direct inflation impact so far.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices contributed 0.03 percentage points (pp) to inflation.
• Food and beverages added 0.02 pp, reflecting stable agricultural output.
• Housing and utilities remained flat, contributing 0.00 pp.
• Transport costs declined slightly, subtracting -0.01 pp.

Policy pulse

The inflation rate remains comfortably within the Central Bank of Jordan’s target band. This supports the current neutral monetary policy stance, with no immediate pressure for rate hikes. Inflation expectations remain well-anchored, consistent with the bank’s forward guidance.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The JOD/USD exchange rate showed minimal movement, fluctuating within a narrow 0.10% range in the first hour post-release. Short-term government bond yields (2-year) edged down by 3 basis points, reflecting subdued inflation concerns. Breakeven inflation rates held steady near 2.10%, signaling market confidence in price stability.

Looking ahead, Jordan’s inflation trajectory depends on several factors, including global commodity prices, regional geopolitical developments, and domestic policy adjustments.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

Global energy prices stabilize or decline, easing cost pressures. Continued fiscal discipline and monetary stability support subdued inflation, with MoM rates averaging 0.05%-0.10% through mid-2026. This scenario boosts consumer confidence and investment.

Base scenario (50% probability)

Inflation remains near current levels, fluctuating between 0.05% and 0.15% MoM. Moderate external shocks and steady policy keep inflation within the central bank’s target. Economic growth continues at 3-4%, with manageable unemployment.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

Rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions push inflation above 0.20% MoM. Fiscal loosening or currency pressures exacerbate inflationary trends, forcing the central bank to consider rate hikes. Consumer purchasing power declines, slowing growth.

Jordan’s November 2025 inflation rate of 0.07% MoM signals a stable but cautious macroeconomic environment. The moderation from previous months reflects effective policy calibration amid external uncertainties. While risks remain, particularly from energy markets and regional tensions, the outlook is broadly balanced.

Structural reforms targeting subsidy rationalization and economic diversification will be key to sustaining low inflation and fostering growth. Continued monitoring of core inflation components and external shocks is essential for timely policy responses.

Overall, Jordan’s inflation dynamics suggest a resilient economy navigating complex challenges with measured policy tools.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM

Inflation data in Jordan typically influences local currency stability, bond yields, and select equities sensitive to consumer spending and energy costs. Traders and investors watch these markets closely for signs of policy shifts or economic stress.

• JODUSD – The Jordanian dinar’s exchange rate against the US dollar is directly impacted by inflation trends and monetary policy expectations.
• AMMAN – Jordan’s main stock index reflects investor sentiment on economic growth and inflation pressures.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reacts inversely to inflation surprises, serving as an alternative store of value.
• ARAB – Regional equities sensitive to energy prices and inflation trends.
• EURUSD – Euro-dollar pair reflects broader global risk sentiment influenced by inflation data in emerging markets like Jordan.

Inflation Rate MoM vs. JODUSD Exchange Rate Since 2020

Since 2020, Jordan’s monthly inflation rate has shown a moderate positive correlation (~0.45) with the JODUSD exchange rate. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with slight JOD depreciation pressures, reflecting import cost pass-through. However, the peg to the US dollar limits volatility. The chart below illustrates inflation spikes in mid-2025 aligning with minor JODUSD fluctuations, underscoring the currency’s role as a stabilizing anchor amid inflationary episodes.

FAQs

What is the current Inflation Rate MoM for Jordan?

The latest inflation rate for Jordan in November 2025 is 0.07% month-over-month, indicating mild price increases.

How does the Inflation Rate MoM affect Jordan’s economy?

Inflation influences purchasing power, monetary policy decisions, and investor confidence, impacting growth and financial stability.

What factors drive changes in Jordan’s Inflation Rate MoM?

Key drivers include energy prices, food costs, fiscal policies, exchange rate stability, and regional geopolitical developments.

Takeaway: Jordan’s November inflation print signals controlled price pressures amid external uncertainties, supporting steady policy and a balanced growth outlook.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.