Jordan Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
Key Takeaways: Jordan’s November 2025 inflation rate rose to 2.00%, surpassing the 1.90% estimate and up from 1.74% in October. This marks a notable rebound after a mid-year dip to 1.32% in September. Core inflation drivers include rising energy and food prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative, while fiscal pressures persist due to subsidy costs. External shocks and currency volatility add complexity to the outlook. Financial markets reacted modestly, with the JOD holding steady. Structural trends suggest moderate inflation persistence, with risks skewed to the upside in the near term.
Table of Contents
The latest inflation data for Jordan, released on November 12, 2025, shows a year-over-year (YoY) increase to 2.00%, up from 1.74% in October and well above the 1.90% consensus forecast. This figure is sourced from the Sigmanomics database, which compiles official statistics and cross-verifies with regional data providers. The inflation rate has fluctuated notably over the past 12 months, with a low of 1.32% in September 2025 and a high of 2.02% in July 2025.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices contributed 0.35 percentage points (pp), driven by global oil price volatility.
- Food inflation added 0.25 pp, reflecting supply chain disruptions and regional drought effects.
- Housing and utilities remained stable, contributing 0.10 pp.
- Transport costs edged up 0.15 pp due to rising fuel expenses.
Policy pulse
The Central Bank of Jordan’s inflation target range is 2.00% ± 1.00%. The current print sits at the upper bound, signaling a potential need for tighter monetary policy if inflationary pressures persist. However, the bank has maintained a cautious stance given fragile economic growth and external uncertainties.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Jordanian dinar (JOD) remained stable against the USD, while 2-year government bond yields rose modestly by 5 basis points, reflecting mild inflation concerns. Breakeven inflation rates in regional markets edged up 0.10%, indicating slightly higher inflation expectations.
Jordan’s inflation rate is a critical macroeconomic indicator influencing monetary policy, consumer purchasing power, and fiscal planning. The 2.00% YoY inflation aligns with moderate price growth, but the recent upward trend warrants close monitoring.
Historical comparisons
- Compared to April 2025’s 1.64%, inflation has risen by 0.36 pp over seven months.
- The 2.00% figure is slightly below the 2024 annual average of 2.15%, reflecting some easing from last year’s peak inflation.
- Mid-2025 saw a dip to 1.32% in September, the lowest in the past year, before rebounding sharply.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Central Bank of Jordan has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.25% since mid-2025. Inflation nearing the 2% target may prompt a rate hike in early 2026 if upward pressures continue. Financial conditions remain accommodative, supporting credit growth and investment, but currency stability is crucial amid regional volatility.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal deficits remain a concern, with subsidy programs on fuel and food weighing on the budget. Inflationary pressures increase subsidy costs, limiting fiscal space. The government aims to balance social support with fiscal consolidation, but rising prices complicate this effort.
Figure 1 illustrates the monthly inflation trajectory from April to November 2025, highlighting the dip in September and the recent uptick. The data underscores inflation’s sensitivity to external shocks and seasonal factors.
This chart reveals inflation trending upward after a two-month decline, signaling renewed cost pressures. The reversal suggests that external factors, such as energy costs, will remain key drivers in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The JOD/USD exchange rate held steady at 0.71, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Inflation-linked securities saw a slight increase in demand, signaling moderate inflation risk pricing.
Looking ahead, inflation in Jordan faces a mix of upside and downside risks. The baseline scenario projects inflation stabilizing around 2.00%–2.20% through Q1 2026, supported by steady energy prices and moderate domestic demand.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global oil prices surge beyond $90/barrel, pushing inflation above 3.00% YoY.
- Geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains, exacerbating food price inflation.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, fueling demand-driven price pressures.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Energy prices stabilize near current levels.
- Fiscal measures contain subsidy costs without major expansion.
- Inflation remains near 2.00%–2.20%, consistent with central bank targets.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Global commodity prices ease, reducing inflation below 1.50% YoY.
- Improved regional stability lowers supply chain risks.
- Monetary tightening dampens demand and price pressures.
Structural & long-run trends
Jordan’s inflation has historically been moderate, averaging 2.10% over the past five years. Structural factors such as import dependence, subsidy policies, and labor market dynamics shape inflation persistence. Long-run inflation expectations remain anchored near 2%, supporting macroeconomic stability.
Jordan’s November 2025 inflation print signals a cautious return of upward price pressures after a mid-year lull. While the current 2.00% rate aligns with the central bank’s target, ongoing external risks and fiscal constraints pose challenges. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support amid a complex regional environment. Financial markets have so far absorbed the data without major disruption, but vigilance is warranted.
Continued monitoring of energy prices, geopolitical developments, and domestic fiscal policy will be key to anticipating inflation’s trajectory. Investors and policymakers alike should prepare for a range of outcomes, with inflation likely to hover near target but vulnerable to shocks.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Jordan’s inflation data influences several asset classes, particularly those sensitive to interest rates, currency stability, and commodity prices. Traders and investors watch these markets closely for signals on monetary policy shifts and economic health.
- JORDAN: Local equities respond to inflation-driven cost pressures and consumer demand changes.
- USDJOD: The Jordanian dinar’s exchange rate is sensitive to inflation and central bank policy.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin often reacts to inflation expectations as a hedge asset.
- AMZN: Global consumer goods stocks reflect inflation’s impact on supply chains and pricing.
- EURUSD: Euro-dollar pair reacts to inflation trends in emerging markets including Jordan.
Inflation Rate YoY vs. USDJOD Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Jordan’s inflation rate and the USDJOD exchange rate have shown a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with slight JOD depreciation, reflecting concerns over purchasing power and monetary policy responses. For example, the 2025 mid-year inflation dip to 1.32% corresponded with a brief JOD strengthening, while the recent inflation rebound to 2.00% saw the currency stabilize amid cautious central bank intervention.
| Year | Average Inflation YoY (%) | USDJOD Exchange Rate (Avg.) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.90 | 0.71 |
| 2021 | 2.30 | 0.71 |
| 2022 | 2.10 | 0.71 |
| 2023 | 2.00 | 0.71 |
| 2024 | 2.15 | 0.71 |
| 2025 (YTD) | 1.80 | 0.71 |
FAQs
- What is the current Inflation Rate YoY for Jordan?
- The latest inflation rate for Jordan is 2.00% YoY as of November 2025, up from 1.74% in October.
- How does the Inflation Rate YoY affect Jordan’s monetary policy?
- Inflation near 2% aligns with the central bank’s target, but sustained rises could prompt interest rate hikes to control price pressures.
- What are the main drivers behind Jordan’s inflation changes?
- Energy and food prices are the primary drivers, influenced by global commodity markets and regional supply disruptions.
Final Takeaway: Jordan’s inflation rate rebound to 2.00% signals renewed price pressures amid external shocks. Policymakers face a delicate balance between containing inflation and supporting growth in a volatile regional environment.
JORDAN – Jordanian equity market, sensitive to inflation and economic growth.
USDJOD – Jordanian dinar exchange rate, closely linked to inflation and monetary policy.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and risk sentiment indicator.
AMZN – Global consumer goods stock, reflecting inflation’s impact on supply chains.
EURUSD – Euro-dollar pair, influenced by inflation trends in emerging markets.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 2.00% marks a clear increase from October’s 1.74% and surpasses the 12-month average of 1.75%. This rebound follows a trough of 1.32% in September, indicating a reversal of the mid-year slowdown.
Energy and food price volatility are the primary catalysts, with global oil prices rising 8% over the past month and regional drought impacting agricultural output. These factors have pushed headline inflation upward despite stable core inflation components.