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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 10.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Kyrgyzstan Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 10.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.2% from August's 11.0% reading. The print exceeded the 10.0% consensus by 0.8%. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.8%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 10.98%, vs 12.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
10.8
Actual
10
Consensus
11
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.86 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 9.78
Actual: 10.8
Error: -1.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Kyrgyzstan) was reported at 10.8% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 10% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 11%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.77%, ranging from 8.8% to 12.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 10.97%, down from the prior three at 12.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.14%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.89%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.86%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - KG
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Kyrgyzstan
DEFINITION
Kyrgyzstan's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose 10.800000% in September, beating the 10.000000% estimate but down from August's 11.000000%. The economy showed a slight deceleration compared to the previous month, maintaining strong growth above 10%. Market focus remains on upcoming data releases and central bank policy amid steady expansion. Updated 10/16/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 10.8 %, consensus 10 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 11 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 11.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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