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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 11.1% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Kyrgyzstan Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 11.1% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.8% from June's 11.9% reading. The reading missed the 12.1% consensus by 1.0%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 12.17%, vs 9.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
11.1
Actual
12.1
Consensus
11.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.9 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 12.6
Actual: 11.1
Error: +1.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Kyrgyzstan) was reported at 11.1% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 12.1% by 1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 11.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.67%, ranging from 8.8% to 12.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 11.73%, up from the prior three at 10.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.21%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.79%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.9%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - KG
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Kyrgyzstan
DEFINITION
Kyrgyzstan's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 11.100000% for July, missing the 12.100000% estimate. This marks a decline from June's 11.900000%, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Market participants will watch upcoming data for further signals on the central bank's policy direction. Updated 8/14/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 11.1 %, consensus 12.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 11.9 %. Before that (May 2026): 12.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - KG Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:20 | KG | Industrial Production YoY | -9.6 | 6.3 | 3 | -0.55 | Low |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | KG | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 11.1 | 10.9 | 10.90 | Low | |