Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth Rate YoY: November 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
Table of Contents
Kazakhstan’s latest GDP growth rate YoY, released on November 14, 2025, registered at 6.30%, exceeding both the market consensus of 4.50% and the previous 6.20% reading. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a robust economic expansion driven by a combination of strong commodity exports, particularly oil and metals, and resilient domestic consumption. The growth rate is the highest recorded since early 2023, signaling a recovery phase after a mid-2024 slowdown.
Drivers this month
- Commodity exports contributed approximately 1.80 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth.
- Domestic consumption added 2.10 pp, supported by rising wages and credit expansion.
- Government infrastructure spending contributed 0.90 pp, reflecting fiscal stimulus efforts.
- Net exports added 0.50 pp, benefiting from favorable trade balances despite global uncertainties.
Policy pulse
The National Bank of Kazakhstan has maintained an accommodative stance, keeping the policy rate steady at 9.25%, balancing inflation control with growth support. Inflation remains elevated at 8.40% YoY but shows signs of peaking. The GDP growth rate surpasses the central bank’s target range of 3–5%, indicating a strong cyclical upswing.
Market lens
Following the GDP print, the KZT currency appreciated by 0.40% against the USD within the first hour, reflecting improved investor confidence. Sovereign bond yields on the 2-year tenor tightened by 12 basis points, signaling reduced risk premia. Equity markets, represented by the KZKZ index, rose 1.20%, led by energy and financial sectors.
Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic backdrop supports the strong GDP growth reading. Inflation at 8.40% YoY remains above the National Bank’s 4% target but is down from 9.10% six months ago. Unemployment stands at 4.70%, near historic lows, reflecting tight labor markets. Industrial production grew 5.50% YoY, while retail sales expanded 7.20%, underscoring broad-based demand.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The National Bank’s steady policy rate and moderate liquidity injections have kept credit growth at 12% YoY. Real interest rates remain slightly negative, supporting borrowing. The banking sector’s non-performing loan ratio improved to 3.10%, enhancing financial stability.
Fiscal policy & government budget
The government’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 3.50% a year ago, thanks to higher oil revenues and improved tax collection. Public investment in infrastructure and economic diversification continues, with a 15% increase in capital expenditure YoY.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Global commodity price volatility and regional geopolitical tensions remain key risks. While oil prices averaged $78/barrel in Q3 2025, a 10% drop in the past month poses downside risks. Tensions in Central Asia could disrupt trade routes, impacting exports and investor sentiment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The KZT strengthened 0.40% versus USD, while 2-year government bond yields fell by 12 basis points. The USDKZT pair’s decline signals renewed confidence in the local currency amid growth optimism.
This chart confirms Kazakhstan’s GDP growth is trending upward, reversing a two-month decline seen in mid-2024. The steady increase signals resilience against global headwinds and validates ongoing fiscal and monetary support.
Looking ahead, Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline scenario projects GDP growth moderating slightly to 5.80% in 2026, supported by stable commodity prices and continued fiscal stimulus. This scenario carries a 55% probability.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Commodity prices rebound above $85/barrel.
- Geopolitical tensions ease, boosting trade.
- Structural reforms accelerate diversification.
- GDP growth exceeds 7%, driven by investment and exports.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Oil prices fall below $65/barrel.
- Regional conflicts disrupt supply chains.
- Inflation spikes, forcing monetary tightening.
- GDP growth slows below 4%, with rising unemployment.
Policy pulse
The National Bank is expected to maintain a cautious approach, potentially hiking rates if inflationary pressures resurface. Fiscal policy will likely continue targeted spending on infrastructure and social programs to sustain growth momentum.
Kazakhstan’s November 2025 GDP growth rate of 6.30% YoY signals a robust economic recovery, surpassing expectations and reflecting strong commodity exports and domestic demand. While inflation and geopolitical risks remain concerns, the macroeconomic environment is supportive. The balance of risks suggests moderate growth ahead, contingent on external conditions and policy responses.
Investors and policymakers should monitor commodity price trends, inflation dynamics, and regional stability closely. The interplay of these factors will shape Kazakhstan’s growth path and financial market performance in the coming quarters.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY
Kazakhstan’s GDP growth rate influences several key markets, including local equities, currency pairs, and commodity-linked assets. The following symbols historically track the indicator closely due to their economic sensitivity and market exposure:
- KZKZ – Kazakhstan’s main equity index, sensitive to domestic economic growth and commodity prices.
- USDKZT – The USD/KZT currency pair, reflecting investor confidence and capital flows.
- GAZP – Gazprom stock, linked to regional energy markets impacting Kazakhstan’s export revenues.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a proxy for risk sentiment and alternative asset flows in emerging markets.
- EURUSD – Euro to US Dollar, reflecting global risk appetite and trade dynamics affecting Kazakhstan indirectly.
Indicator vs. USDKZT Since 2020
Since 2020, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth rate and the USDKZT exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of accelerating GDP growth typically coincide with KZT appreciation against the USD. For example, the 2025 growth surge to 6.30% YoY aligns with a 0.40% KZT strengthening post-release. This relationship underscores the currency’s sensitivity to economic fundamentals and external shocks.
FAQs
- What is the current GDP Growth Rate YoY for Kazakhstan?
- The latest GDP growth rate for Kazakhstan is 6.30% YoY as of November 2025, surpassing expectations and prior readings.
- How does Kazakhstan’s GDP growth impact its currency?
- Stronger GDP growth typically leads to KZT appreciation versus the USD, reflecting improved investor confidence and economic fundamentals.
- What are the main risks to Kazakhstan’s economic growth?
- Key risks include commodity price volatility, regional geopolitical tensions, and inflationary pressures that could prompt monetary tightening.
Takeaway: Kazakhstan’s economy is on a strong growth path, but vigilance is needed to navigate external shocks and inflation risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 GDP growth rate of 6.30% YoY marks a slight increase from August’s 6.20% and well above the 12-month average of 4.50%. This upward trend reverses the mid-2024 dip to 3.20%, reflecting a sustained recovery phase.
Comparing recent prints, growth accelerated from 4.10% in November 2024 and 5.60% in May 2025, indicating improving momentum. The data suggests that Kazakhstan’s economy is benefiting from both external demand and internal stimulus measures.