Kazakhstan’s economy is displaying a vigorous rebound in late 2025, with GDP growth accelerating to 9.10% YoY in November. This figure is well above the 12-month average of 7.00% and the previous month’s 6.30%, signaling a strong recovery phase after a period of moderate growth earlier this year. The country’s economic expansion is driven by a combination of rising commodity prices, increased domestic demand, and supportive fiscal measures.

Drivers this month

• Energy exports surged amid higher global oil prices, contributing approximately 2.50 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth.
• Manufacturing output expanded by 7.80%, adding 1.80 pp.
• Retail sales and consumer spending rose 6.20%, supporting 1.50 pp growth.
• Infrastructure investments increased by 12%, adding 1.30 pp.

Policy pulse

The National Bank of Kazakhstan maintains a cautious stance, with the policy rate steady at 12.00%, balancing inflation concerns against growth momentum. Inflation remains elevated at 9.50% YoY, slightly above the 8% target ceiling, but recent data suggests inflationary pressures may be peaking.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The KZT strengthened 0.70% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields tightened by 15 basis points, reflecting improved investor confidence.

Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning the GDP surge include a rebound in industrial production, a stable labor market, and rising commodity prices. Kazakhstan’s oil output increased by 4.20% YoY, while natural gas production rose 3.50%. Unemployment held steady at 4.80%, near historic lows, supporting consumer spending growth.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The National Bank’s steady policy rate of 12.00% aims to contain inflation without stifling growth. Credit growth accelerated to 14.50% YoY, fueled by consumer and corporate lending. The banking sector remains well-capitalized, with non-performing loans stable at 3.20%.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

The government’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit projected at 3.80% of GDP, financed partly by sovereign bond issuance. Increased spending on infrastructure and social programs supports domestic demand, while prudent debt management keeps public debt at a moderate 25% of GDP.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

While global commodity prices have buoyed Kazakhstan’s export revenues, geopolitical tensions in Central Asia and fluctuating demand from China pose downside risks. Sanctions on Russia and supply chain disruptions remain potential headwinds.

Financial Markets & Sentiment

Financial markets responded positively, with the KZT currency appreciating and sovereign bond spreads narrowing. Equity indices focused on energy and materials sectors rallied, reflecting optimism about sustained growth.

Looking ahead, Kazakhstan’s economic trajectory will depend on commodity price stability, fiscal discipline, and external demand. The baseline scenario forecasts GDP growth moderating to 7.50% in 2026 as global energy prices normalize and inflationary pressures ease.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global oil prices remain elevated above $90/barrel.
• Strong infrastructure investment and export diversification.
• GDP growth sustains above 8.50% through 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Oil prices stabilize near $75/barrel.
• Moderate fiscal stimulus continues.
• GDP growth averages 7.50% in 2026.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Commodity prices fall below $60/barrel due to global slowdown.
• Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade.
• GDP growth slows to below 5% in 2026.

Kazakhstan’s latest GDP YoY growth of 9.10% signals a strong economic rebound, supported by energy exports, manufacturing, and fiscal stimulus. While inflation and geopolitical risks warrant caution, the overall outlook remains positive. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing growth with inflation control as the country navigates external uncertainties and structural reforms.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term growth hinges on diversification away from hydrocarbons, investment in technology, and human capital development. Kazakhstan’s commitment to economic reforms and regional integration will be critical to sustaining growth beyond the commodity cycle.

Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product YoY

Kazakhstan’s GDP growth data typically influences regional currencies, sovereign bonds, and commodity-linked equities. Market participants closely watch the KZT exchange rate, energy sector stocks, and regional bond yields for signals on economic health and policy direction.

• KZTKZT – The Kazakhstani tenge’s performance is directly impacted by GDP growth and commodity exports.
• KZTK – Kazakhstan’s energy sector ETF correlates strongly with GDP fluctuations.
• USO – The United States Oil Fund tracks crude prices, a key driver of Kazakhstan’s export revenues.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s risk sentiment often moves inversely to emerging market growth shocks.
• USDKZT – The USD/KZT pair reflects investor confidence and monetary policy expectations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Kazakhstan’s latest GDP YoY figure indicate?

The 9.10% GDP YoY growth indicates a strong economic rebound driven by energy exports and domestic demand, signaling robust expansion in late 2025.

How does this GDP growth affect Kazakhstan’s monetary policy?

Higher GDP growth supports a cautious monetary policy stance, balancing inflation control with growth, keeping the policy rate steady at 12.00%.

What are the main risks to Kazakhstan’s economic outlook?

Key risks include volatile commodity prices, geopolitical tensions, and inflationary pressures that could slow growth or destabilize markets.

Takeaway: Kazakhstan’s 9.10% GDP YoY growth print marks a powerful economic upswing, but sustaining momentum will require deft policy management amid external uncertainties.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.