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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
KazakhstanKazakhstan Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 4.9% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Kazakhstan Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 4.9% in August 2026, released September 2026. The reading matched the 4.7% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 4.7%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 5.0%, vs 3.63% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 32nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.9
Actual
4.7
Consensus
4.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.54 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 4.98
Actual: 4.9
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Kazakhstan) was reported at 4.9% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.7% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.92%, ranging from -2.8% to 9.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.97%, up from the prior three at 2.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.58%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.77%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.54%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - KZ
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Kazakhstan
DEFINITION
Kazakhstan's Gross Domestic Product YoY for August came in at 4.900000%, matching the previous month's reading and beating the 4.700000% estimate. August's 4.9% held steady from July's 5.1%, indicating a slight deceleration but continued expansion. Market focus remains on upcoming data releases to gauge sustained growth momentum. Updated 9/15/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.9 %, consensus 4.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.9 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 5.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - KZ Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | KZ | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.80 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:50 | KZ | Industrial Production YoY | 1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.00 | Low |