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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
KazakhstanKazakhstan Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 4.2% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Kazakhstan Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 4.2% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.7% from August's 4.9% reading. The reading missed the 4.8% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.58%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 4.67%, vs 4.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 21st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.2
Actual
4.8
Consensus
4.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.82 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5.02
Actual: 4.2
Error: +0.82
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Kazakhstan) was reported at 4.2% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.8% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.73%, ranging from -2.8% to 9.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.67%, up from the prior three at 4.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.56%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.71%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.82%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - KZ
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Kazakhstan
DEFINITION
Kazakhstan's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 4.200000% for September, missing the 4.800000% estimate and down from August's 4.9%. The slowdown marks a deceleration in economic growth compared to the previous month. Market participants will watch for central bank responses amid this cooling trend. Updated 10/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.2 %, consensus 4.8 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 4.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - KZ Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | KZ | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 07:00 | KZ | Inflation Rate YoY | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.55 | Low | |