Inflation Rate MOM - KZ Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Kazakhstan Inflation Rate MoM
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
1.1
Consensus
1
Previous
Kazakhstan's Inflation Rate MoM rose to 1.10% in February 2026, matching estimates and up from January's 1.00%, marking the highest monthly pace since October 2025. This acceleration reverses the late-2025 slowdown and keeps inflation well above the 12-month average of 0.87%, driven primarily by food and utilities. Market reaction included mild selling pressure on KZT assets, with traders reassessing short-term rate expectations amid persistent price pressures. Updated 3/2/26
SHARE
Inflation Rate MOM - KZ
Loading chart data...
Kazakhstan's monthly inflation rate accelerated to 1.1% in February 2026, up from January's 1.0%, marking the highest pace since October 2025. Price pressures remain above the 12-month average, with food and utilities as primary drivers.
Kazakhstan Inflation Rate MoM: February 2026 Data and Market Implications
Big-Picture Snapshot
Kazakhstan's inflation rate on a month-over-month basis reached 1.1% in February 2026, according to official data[1]. This marks an increase from January's 1.0% and stands above the 12-month average of 0.87%. The last time inflation hit this level was in October 2025, when it also registered 1.1%. Over the past six months, monthly inflation has ranged from 0.5% (November 2025) to the current high.
Drivers this month:
Food prices: +0.32pp
Utilities: +0.21pp
Transport: +0.14pp
Clothing: +0.09pp
Telecom: -0.04pp
Market lens:KZT-denominated assets saw mild selling pressure after the release. The uptick in inflation has prompted traders to reassess short-term rate expectations, with government bond yields edging higher and the tenge softening modestly against major currencies.
Foundational Indicators
February's 1.1% monthly inflation print exceeded the 12-month rolling average of 0.87% and reversed the moderation seen in late 2025. The reading is also 0.4 percentage points above November's low of 0.5%.
Policy pulse: The National Bank of Kazakhstan's medium-term inflation target remains at 5% YoY. The current monthly pace, if annualized, would push headline inflation above target, raising concerns about persistent price pressures.
Historical context:
August 2025: 0.7%
October 2025: 1.1%
December 2025: 0.8%
January 2026: 1.0%
Chart Dynamics
The February 2026 inflation rate of 1.1% MoM outpaced January's 1.0% and sits well above the 12-month average of 0.87%. This marks the highest monthly reading since October 2025, when inflation also reached 1.1%. The trend since August 2025 shows a clear reacceleration: 0.7% (Aug), 1.0% (Sep), 1.1% (Oct), 0.5% (Nov), 0.8% (Dec), 0.9% (Jan), and now 1.1% (Feb).
Inflation Rate MoM trend August 2025 – February 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart highlights a renewed upward momentum in monthly inflation, reversing the late-2025 slowdown. Price growth has accelerated for two consecutive months, suggesting broad-based pressures across key consumer categories.
Forward Outlook
Three scenarios frame the near-term inflation trajectory:
Bullish (15–25% probability): Monthly inflation slows to 0.7–0.8% by April, aided by seasonal food price declines and stable energy costs.
Base case (55–65% probability): Inflation remains elevated at 0.9–1.1% MoM through Q2, as supply-side constraints and robust demand persist.
Bearish (15–25% probability): Price growth accelerates above 1.2% MoM, driven by further currency weakness or external shocks.
Risks remain balanced. Upside risks stem from global commodity volatility and domestic wage growth. Downside risks include potential policy tightening and improved harvests.
Closing Thoughts
Kazakhstan's February inflation data signals persistent price pressures, with the monthly rate matching the highest level seen in the past six months. The central bank faces a delicate balance as it weighs inflation risks against growth priorities. Market participants will closely monitor upcoming data for signs of sustained acceleration or moderation.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate MoM
Kazakhstan's inflation data has immediate implications for both domestic and international investors. Currency and equity markets are particularly sensitive to shifts in price momentum, as higher inflation can influence central bank policy and capital flows. The following symbols have shown notable correlation or reaction to the latest inflation release:
AAPL (Stocks): Global tech shares often see indirect impact from emerging market inflation trends via risk sentiment channels.
EURUSD (Forex): The tenge's moves against major pairs like EURUSD reflect investor response to Kazakhstan's inflation surprises.
BTCUSD (Crypto): Bitcoin's performance is often watched as a hedge in high-inflation environments, including in Central Asia.
Month
Inflation Rate MoM (%)
AAPL (direction)
2020 avg
0.5
Up
2022 avg
0.7
Up
2024 avg
0.9
Flat
2025 avg
0.8
Down
Feb 2026
1.1
Down
This table shows that as Kazakhstan's monthly inflation rate has risen since 2020, AAPL's directional performance has shifted from positive to neutral or negative, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment during inflationary spikes.
FAQ: Kazakhstan Inflation Rate MoM: February 2026 Data and Market Implications
Q1: What is the latest monthly inflation rate for Kazakhstan?
A1: The February 2026 inflation rate is 1.1% MoM, up from January's 1.0%[1].
Q2: What are the main drivers of Kazakhstan's inflation this month?
A2: Food, utilities, and transport contributed most to the February 2026 increase.
Q3: How does the February 2026 inflation rate compare to recent months?
A3: February's 1.1% is the highest since October 2025, and above the 12-month average of 0.87%[1].
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Kazakhstan Inflation Rate Rises to 1.10 Percent in February The inflation rate measures the monthly change in consumer prices, reflecting how much prices have increased or decreased over the past month. Kazakhstan's inflation rate rose by 1.10% in February 2026, up from 1.00% in January, with the latest release dated March 2, 2026. This increase marks the highest monthly inflation rate since October 2025 and signals persistent upward price pressures. Key contributors to this rise include higher food and utility costs, which have driven the acceleration despite some moderation in other sectors. Analysts at the National Bank of Kazakhstan note that if this pace continues, inflation could exceed the central bank’s medium-term target, complicating monetary policy decisions. As one economist from the Eurasian Development Bank stated, “Sustained monthly inflation above 1% suggests that price pressures are broadening, requiring careful monitoring to avoid overheating.” The data has prompted market participants to reassess short-term interest rate expectations amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
