Kazakhstan Inflation Rate MoM: December 2025 Analysis and Outlook
The latest data from the Sigmanomics database reveals Kazakhstan’s inflation rate rose by 0.80% month-over-month (MoM) in December 2025. This figure surpasses the market estimate of 0.60% and marks an acceleration from November’s 0.50%. This report examines the inflation dynamics within Kazakhstan’s evolving macroeconomic landscape, comparing recent trends with historical data, and assessing implications for monetary policy, fiscal stance, and external risks.
Table of Contents
Kazakhstan’s inflation rate MoM at 0.80% in December 2025 signals a notable uptick compared to the prior month’s 0.50%. This acceleration follows a period of moderation after the peak inflation readings of 1.10% in October 2025. The current rate remains elevated relative to the 12-month average of approximately 0.80%, reflecting persistent price pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices contributed 0.25 percentage points (pp) due to rising global oil prices.
- Food inflation added 0.30 pp, driven by supply chain disruptions and seasonal factors.
- Transportation costs rose by 0.15 pp, reflecting higher fuel and logistics expenses.
- Core inflation components excluding volatile food and energy increased by 0.10 pp.
Policy pulse
The 0.80% MoM inflation exceeds the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s target range of 4-6% annual inflation, suggesting upward pressure on prices remains. The central bank’s recent pause in rate hikes may face renewed scrutiny if inflation persists above expectations.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The KZT currency weakened by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 12 basis points, reflecting inflation concerns. Breakeven inflation rates edged higher, signaling market anticipation of sustained price pressures.
Kazakhstan’s inflation trajectory must be viewed alongside core macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth slowed slightly to an estimated 3.20% YoY in Q4 2025, down from 3.50% in Q3, reflecting external headwinds and domestic demand moderation. Unemployment remains stable at 5.10%, while wage growth accelerated modestly at 6.00% YoY, supporting consumer spending but also fueling inflation.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The National Bank of Kazakhstan holds the policy rate steady at 12.50%, balancing inflation containment with growth support. Financial conditions have tightened marginally as credit growth slowed to 9% YoY, down from 11% earlier in the year. The KZT’s recent depreciation adds imported inflation risks.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
The government’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with a budget deficit of 2.80% of GDP projected for 2025. Increased spending on infrastructure and social programs supports growth but may add inflationary pressures if demand outpaces supply.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price volatility, especially in oil and metals, continues to impact Kazakhstan’s inflation. Geopolitical tensions in the region have disrupted trade routes, exacerbating supply chain bottlenecks and contributing to price volatility.
Drivers this month
- Energy inflation surged due to a 5% rise in Brent crude prices.
- Food prices increased by 1.20% MoM, driven by grain and vegetable shortages.
- Transportation costs rose 0.90%, linked to higher fuel taxes.
Policy pulse
The inflation reading remains above the National Bank’s comfort zone, suggesting limited room for policy easing. The central bank may consider further tightening if inflation expectations become unanchored.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The KZT/USD exchange rate depreciated by 0.30%, while 2-year yields climbed 12 basis points. Inflation-linked bonds saw increased demand, pushing breakeven inflation rates up by 8 basis points.
This chart highlights inflation’s recent rebound, reversing a two-month decline. The upward trend signals persistent cost pressures, particularly from energy and food sectors, which may challenge monetary policy normalization efforts.
Looking ahead, inflation in Kazakhstan faces a mix of upside and downside risks. The baseline scenario projects inflation stabilizing around 0.70% MoM in early 2026, supported by moderate wage growth and steady commodity prices. However, several scenarios merit consideration.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global commodity prices ease sharply, reducing imported inflation.
- Supply chain disruptions resolve, easing food and transportation costs.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth without inflation spikes.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation stabilizes near current levels, around 0.70-0.80% MoM.
- Monetary policy remains cautious, with potential gradual rate hikes.
- Fiscal policy continues moderate expansion, balancing growth and inflation.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade and supply chains.
- Commodity prices spike, pushing inflation above 1% MoM.
- Monetary tightening accelerates, risking growth slowdown.
Kazakhstan’s December 2025 inflation rate MoM of 0.80% underscores persistent price pressures amid a challenging external environment. The acceleration from November’s 0.50% and alignment with the 12-month average suggest inflation remains a key policy focus. The National Bank of Kazakhstan faces a delicate balancing act between containing inflation and supporting growth. External shocks and fiscal policy will continue to shape inflation dynamics in 2026.
Monitoring core inflation components and wage trends will be critical to anticipate policy shifts. Market reactions indicate heightened sensitivity to inflation data, with currency depreciation and rising yields reflecting concerns. Policymakers should prepare for a range of outcomes, from stabilization to renewed inflation spikes, depending on global and domestic developments.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Kazakhstan’s inflation data typically influences several key markets, including currency, bond, and commodity sectors. The KZT/USD forex pair reacts swiftly to inflation surprises, reflecting shifts in monetary policy expectations. Government bond yields, especially the 2-year tenor, adjust to inflation outlook changes. Energy commodities, notably Brent crude, impact inflation directly through import prices. Additionally, equities in the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) respond to inflation-driven cost pressures and policy shifts.
- KZTKZT – Kazakhstan Tenge currency pair, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy.
- KZTK – Kazakhstan stock index, reflecting economic growth and inflation impacts.
- USDKZT – USD/KZT exchange rate, a direct gauge of currency strength amid inflation.
- BRN – Brent crude oil futures, a major driver of Kazakhstan’s inflation via import prices.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge impacting investor sentiment.
Inflation vs. KZTKZT Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Kazakhstan’s inflation rate MoM and the KZTKZT exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of rising inflation typically coincide with KZT depreciation against major currencies. For example, inflation spikes in mid-2025 aligned with a 5% depreciation in KZT. This relationship underscores the currency’s sensitivity to inflation expectations and monetary policy shifts.
FAQs
- What is the latest inflation rate MoM for Kazakhstan?
- The latest inflation rate MoM for Kazakhstan is 0.80% as of December 2025, up from 0.50% in November.
- How does Kazakhstan’s inflation affect monetary policy?
- Higher inflation pressures may prompt the National Bank of Kazakhstan to tighten monetary policy, including potential rate hikes.
- What are the main drivers of inflation in Kazakhstan?
- Key drivers include rising energy and food prices, transportation costs, and wage growth.
Key takeaway: Kazakhstan’s inflation rate MoM acceleration to 0.80% in December 2025 signals persistent price pressures, challenging policymakers to balance inflation containment with growth support amid external uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Kazakhstan’s inflation rate MoM at 0.80% in December 2025 rose from 0.50% in November and aligns with the 12-month average of 0.80%. This marks a reversal from the dip observed last month and signals renewed inflation momentum.
Comparing historical data, the current reading is below the peak 1.10% recorded in October 2025 but above the 0.70% average seen in August 2025. This volatility reflects ongoing external shocks and domestic cost pressures.