Kazakhstan Inflation Rate YoY Falls to 11.7% in February
The latest data from Kazakhstan's Bureau of National Statistics shows the country's year-over-year inflation rate declined to 11.7% in February 2026, down from January's 12.2%. This marks the lowest reading since June 2025, as price pressures continue to moderate from last autumn's highs.[1]
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Food prices: +0.11pp
- Utilities: +0.06pp
- Transport: -0.04pp
Policy pulse
The 11.7% inflation rate remains well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan's 5% target band, though the gap has narrowed since October's 12.9% peak.[1]
Market lens
KZT-denominated assets saw muted reaction as the inflation print matched consensus estimates. Investors are watching for further evidence of disinflation before repositioning in local bonds or equities.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- February 2026: 11.7%
- January 2026: 12.2%
- December 2025: 12.4%
- November 2025: 12.6%
- October 2025: 12.9%
- August 2025: 11.8%
Trend analysis
Inflation has declined by 1.2 percentage points since October 2025. The 12-month average stands at 12.1%, with February's reading now below that mark.[1]
Methodology
Figures are sourced from the Bureau of National Statistics and reflect changes in the consumer price index compared to the same month a year earlier. Data is compiled using a basket of goods and services representative of household spending patterns.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: Inflation falls below 11% by Q2 2026 (25–35% probability)
- Base: Inflation stabilizes between 11.5–12% through mid-2026 (50–60% probability)
- Bearish: Price growth rebounds above 12.5% if supply shocks re-emerge (10–15% probability)
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include renewed food price volatility and energy market disruptions. Downside risks stem from tighter monetary policy and improved supply chains. The central bank's stance remains data-dependent, with further moves contingent on inflation persistence.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Local bond yields held steady after the release, reflecting market confidence in the disinflation trend. The KZT showed limited movement, as investors await further confirmation of a sustained slowdown before adjusting positions.
Policy pulse
With inflation still more than double the official target, policymakers are unlikely to declare victory. The focus remains on anchoring expectations and ensuring that recent gains are not reversed by external shocks.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation data from Kazakhstan can influence a range of asset classes, from local equities to global currency pairs. Below are verified tradable symbols with direct or indirect exposure to the country's inflation dynamics. Each symbol is linked to its official Sigmanomics page and includes a brief note on its relevance.
- AAPL — Apple Inc. shares can be sensitive to emerging market inflation trends through supply chain and demand channels.
- EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair often reacts to inflation surprises in emerging markets, affecting risk sentiment and capital flows.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin is sometimes viewed as a hedge against high inflation, especially in countries with volatile currencies.
| Year | KZ Inflation YoY (%) | AAPL Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 6.8 | Upward |
| 2021 | 8.4 | Upward |
| 2022 | 13.1 | Volatile |
| 2023 | 14.5 | Mixed |
| 2024 | 13.2 | Upward |
| 2025 | 12.1 | Stable |
Periods of rising inflation in Kazakhstan have coincided with increased volatility in global tech stocks, including AAPL, as investors reassess risk and growth prospects.
FAQ
- What is the current Inflation Rate YoY in Kazakhstan?
- Kazakhstan's year-over-year inflation rate for February 2026 stands at 11.7%, according to official data.[1]
- How does the recent inflation reading compare to previous months?
- The February figure marks a decline from January's 12.2% and is the lowest since June 2025, reflecting a sustained easing trend.[1]
- Why is Inflation Rate YoY important for Kazakhstan's economy?
- Inflation Rate YoY is a key indicator for policymakers, investors, and households, shaping monetary policy and influencing asset prices.
Kazakhstan's inflation rate has entered a clear cooling phase, but remains well above target.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, official inflation releases, accessed 3/2/26.
February's 11.7% inflation rate marks a notable drop from January's 12.2% and sits below the 12.1% 12-month average. The latest print extends a two-month easing streak, reversing the acceleration seen in late 2025.
Compared to August's 11.8%, inflation is now at its lowest in eight months. The sharpest rise occurred in October 2025, when the rate hit 12.9%. Since then, each subsequent month has seen a gradual moderation.