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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
KazakhstanKazakhstan Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 6.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Kazakhstan Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 6.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.8% from August's 5.6% reading. The print exceeded the 5.0% consensus by 1.4%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 8.56%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 7.03%, vs 14.77% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.4
Actual
5
Consensus
5.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.96 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.55
Actual: 6.4
Error: -3.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Kazakhstan) was reported at 6.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5% by 1.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.41%, ranging from 3.9% to 17.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.03%, down from the prior three at 13.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.39%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.41%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.96%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 10, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - KZ
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Kazakhstan
DEFINITION
Kazakhstan's Producer Price Index YoY rose to 6.400000% in September, beating the 5.000000% estimate and up from August's 5.600000%. This marks a rebound after a decline from July's 9.1%, indicating renewed upward pressure on producer prices. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data closely amid this volatility. Updated 10/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 6.4 %, consensus 5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 5.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 9.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - KZ Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | KZ | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 07:00 | KZ | Inflation Rate YoY | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.55 | Low | |